I think the market for a certain game (Monster Hunter) doesn't exist for the PSP outside of Japan. Also, pushing the PSP in the last year was 1Seg which is not available outside of Japan as well.
As far as NA and EU go the biggest hope I see for it is if they do a PS3/PSP bundle pack (to play off the Remote Play capabilities). I figure SONY is making approx $80/PSP on hardware (I figured it out once...) so if they could bundle it into a PS3 package it might extend the life of the PSP in NA and EU. I just don't see it having the legs to get to 80 million.
Personally I have this theory that they will launch a PSP2 with dual analog at the same time that they launch PS2 BC through software on the PS3. Make the PS2 games downloadable on the PSN and have them playable on the PSP2 and PS3. I see that day within 2 years imo. I refuse to believe that SONY is not going to find a way to milk the PS2 software catalog in the PS3 era.
@kspraydad, What is your opinion on possible "delayed Japan effect", like what happened to DS & DSL ? I remember that DS enjoyed very good sales in Japan, even before DSL launch. DS in US didn't enjoy good sales UNTIL DSL launch, which is about half a year (give or take a few month) AFTER Japan increased sales.
What make you think that it (delayed Japan effect) couldn't happen to PSP ?
Asking this question does not mean that I believe your analysis is wrong, especially since I don't have position in this stock. It is just that I am not sure whether you considered that above mentioned factor, since that was not explained/mentioned in your post.
We currently are targeting LT sales of PSP to 80 million and Nintendo DS at 155 million. This would project that the PSP as a percentage of total handheld sales would be 80/235 = 34.04%
PSP currently represents 32.2% of handheld sales lifetime to date (according to VG which adjusts itself on long term sales and should be 'fairly' accurate).
YTD, even accounting for the resurgance of the PSP in Japan, handheld WW sales are 21662781 and PSP sales YTD are 6982116 or 6982116/21662781= 32.2% of sales.
The resurgance in Japan is not translating elsewhere, it is actually masking a DECREASING percentage of sales in all other territories.
@Joe80, Although, it can be argued that Dreamcast had the lowest tech. I still think it was in Sega's best interest to release a year before PS2, rather than waiting to release in the same year or a year later.
@apujanata, That is not always the case. Look at Sony's move with releasing PS2 earlier than everyone, after they had dominated with PS1. When you have lower tech it is more beneficial to release first.
@Joe80, I think Nintendo will react to Sony (launch portable when Sony announced theirs), not the other way around like you predicted (Nintendo first, Sony second).
IMO, launching first is more beneficial for 2nd ranked console (not much to lose), while 1st ranked console will try to lengthen the cycle as long as possible (lots of potential profit to lose). Since PSP is in the 2nd place, I think Sony will make the first move.
@kspraydad, $100 would be too much for me. I'd be willing to pay up to $69.99 I wager. $170 for a PSP + 70 = $240. It really should be no more than $60 though. $50 would be excellent, $40 would sell very well I think.
In Japan the GPS unit is 'only' $60.00 USD (which personally I consider a fair price if the mapping is up to low end GPS standards given that I already have bought the processor and screen as part of the PSP)
When we learned about the GPS coming to North America I hear prices of +$100 ... it will absolutely BOMB at those prices imo. (though you could source the Japanese stores and run GPS on homebrew I do not follow that 'scene')
In the UK it is currently selling for 100 pounds...quite a dear price vs stand alone GPS. Here is the official UK site. The map packs are downloadable through the PSP store at 15 pounds.
I'm hoping to see it at the $70 mark or there bouts if maps are included. If and when SONY stops supporting the PSP then I'll move to CFW and get updated maps that way.
As for software it was nice to see are recent survey that 40% or more of developers have software in the works of some type for the PSP. Though more support is nice it does seem a little bereft from time to time. (Though with my tastes I'm always busy with the PSP)
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I think the market for a certain game (Monster Hunter) doesn't exist for the PSP outside of Japan. Also, pushing the PSP in the last year was 1Seg which is not available outside of Japan as well.
As far as NA and EU go the biggest hope I see for it is if they do a PS3/PSP bundle pack (to play off the Remote Play capabilities). I figure SONY is making approx $80/PSP on hardware (I figured it out once...) so if they could bundle it into a PS3 package it might extend the life of the PSP in NA and EU. I just don't see it having the legs to get to 80 million.
Personally I have this theory that they will launch a PSP2 with dual analog at the same time that they launch PS2 BC through software on the PS3. Make the PS2 games downloadable on the PSN and have them playable on the PSP2 and PS3. I see that day within 2 years imo. I refuse to believe that SONY is not going to find a way to milk the PS2 software catalog in the PS3 era.