May 27 US VG numbers: Call of Duty 3 Activision Weekly 1,315 Total 240,840
Sustained would be 5200/month
World wide rate is 40 to 105 percent of US rate on various CoD products meaning that at the low end the World would need to buy approx 200k at current DKP estimate leaving only 80k more in US sales needed...that would be about 15 more months at current sales rates and with an increasing console base and likely lower price for this title as new titles come out.
CoD3 has fallen to #8 in PS3 sales for NPD estimates. It sold less than Sonic the Hedgehog in February. I think the momentum for this SKU is significantly declining even with increasing PS3 user base. The sales should flat line soon.
This stock is way overvalued. Game has sold 185,750 copies in NA through Jan 07. This is the worst selling version of CoD3, yet is priced much higher than the Wii and Xbox versions. Though the current rate of sales are higher on the PS3, I don't think it will be able to make up the gap between them. Arbitrage!
I wonder who is still buying this stock? The game sold 28,000 copies in November. Granted, there are very few PS3s in stock and CoD2 did very well in a limited Xbox 360 environment, but does anyone realistically see the PS3 version of CoD3 doing 866k copies?
2
Call of Duty 3
Activision
Weekly 1,315
Total 240,840
Sustained would be 5200/month
World wide rate is 40 to 105 percent of US rate on various CoD products meaning that at the low end the World would need to buy approx 200k at current DKP estimate leaving only 80k more in US sales needed...that would be about 15 more months at current sales rates and with an increasing console base and likely lower price for this title as new titles come out.
No position held.