@apujanata, Yeah, I was basing my claims off of the older numbers and gaming site guestimates of how large the PC gaming industry had grown since them. Now that there's an actual numbers to look at, it seems like 10 million is possible, though it'll probably take quite awhile to get there.
I most certainly wouldn't mind zukaus retiring for at least 5 months, since that mean I can try to catch up to him. Trying to catch up to him is very difficult.
When I first join simEx, his networth is "only" 217 Million. Today, it is 340 Million. He increased his networth by 123 Million, while I only increase my networth 28 Million (only 20% of his networth increase, based on amount).
@Kentor, Based on your calculation, which could be wrong or could be right, it seems that Diablo 2 figure could be between 7.7 - 10 Million (rounded up), which mean my original hunch / estimate of 8 Million - 10 Million of Diablo 3 mean zero percent increase over Diablo 2.
I also covered some of my short at 8xx price point, but unfortunately I didn't go all the way (completely neutral), otherwise, I would have gained more profit :D.
@drl21, I don't agree that Diablo 3 are going to have bell curve. If Blizzard release it yearly or every 2 year, then this could be true. However, since the latest release is a long time ago (2000 for Diablo 2, and 2001 for Diablo 2 : Lord of Destruction) I think it could follow bell curve, or it could also follow linear (either up or down) regression.
I am leaning more toward down (hence my current short position) since there are lots more competition now (IMO) than before.
@drl21, Obviously, you did not understand my comment. Your view of the PC gaming market is too narrow. You are only focusing on titles coming from well-known developers/publishers and that are traditionally disc-based.
The PC gaming market is increasing in size - it has never been larger. However, like I stated, the PC gaming market is continually changing.
Everything from Steam to Live to FPS disc-based games to indie downloadable games to the smallest flash based game is part of the PC gaming market - even solitaire is part of the market. What you may be referring to is the traditional gaming market on the PC. However, there are plenty examples of successful flash-based PC games, indie games, and even traditional PC games. The PC gaming market is just experiencing some shift away from the traditional titles to some of the more smaller niche titles, MMOs, casual titles, and more.
You must do a lot of trading that is not public as I estimate the minimum DKP level must exceed 3.5 million DKP for your holdings to become public :-)
You seem to be much more active than any potential rival for position #1 too. I would bet you could retire now and still be #1 for a very, very long time :-)
With the Blizzard sales numbers cited, I would be wary of being too negative on this GLS, the sales are very impressive, more so than StarCraft in my opinion.
Oh, ok. I didn't realize those were your own projection. Good work. I think it still indicates that this stock is way too high right now though. As someone mentioned earlier, franchise sales fallow a bell curve. We can't assume that everyone who baught Diablo 2 and then some will buy Diablo 3.
Thanks for the quick reply. I think you've provided a very reasonable breakdown of the possible distribution in sales. I doubt the original sold in significant numbers after LoD's release so I have to lean more towards your last set of estimates. But I'm also not sure if Hellfire is included in Blizzard's old numbers so that could bring down your estimates on Diablo II and LoD.
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Yeah, I was basing my claims off of the older numbers and gaming site guestimates of how large the PC gaming industry had grown since them. Now that there's an actual numbers to look at, it seems like 10 million is possible, though it'll probably take quite awhile to get there.