You are most likely right. All you have done is confirmed my point that 14 million copies (which was the price as of my posting) is a gross over estimation. My point of it being 10 million was simply to demonstrate that 14 was too high. Your points are strong arguments towards even my 10 million being an overestimation. Either way the message is the same. Sell people, sell. Excitement has inflated the price of this stock far higher then it is likely to actually reach.
@drl21, Wait, because Diablo 2 has only been confirmed to have sold 4 million copies total, you're claiming it's safe to say Diablo 3 will sell 10 million? The PC gaming base has not doubled since 2006, hence Diablo 3 will have to appeal to a larger percentage of the total gaming market than before. If your claim that the PC market is shrinking is true, that exacerbates the situation even more. Furthermore, you say that we cannot expect Diablo 3 to sell WoW numbers -- 10 million is WoW numbers.
There are only 4 PC games ever confirmed to have breached 10 million units: The Sims, Lineage 2, The Sims 2, and World of Warcraft at 10 million. All of these games have players far outside the traditional gaming demographic that allowed them to reach such staggering numbers. You need something outside of the norm to occur to breach 10 million at this point. Presumably Starcraft will be confirmed at over 10 million units sometime in the future, but again, it will be because of its fanatical following in Korea.
I do not see Diablo appealing to the soccer moms and other non-core gamers. Nor do I see Diablo commanding the massive following that Starcraft has proven to with several Korean television stations broadcast ONLY Starcraft.
@drl21, I agree with most of your points, but I would like to point out quickly that the market for PC gaming is not dwindling. It has actually never been larger (due to the continually growing number of PCs that are bought by consumers each year). The market for PC gaming is merely changing (as it always is) and titles/genres that have previously sold well may not sell as well in the changing market.
This game will no doubt sell well, if nothing else just based on sheer name alone. On top of that, it is extremely likely that this will be a good game. However taking into account the fan base based on sales numbers of Diablo 2, I think that to estimate this came selling more then 10 million copies at this point in time is probably mostly excitement over the announcement. I'd say 10 million is a fairly safe number, but to estimate more than that right now would be a big risk. 14 is pretty chancy considering the dwindling market for PC gaming. We can not expect this game to sell WOW numbers even if it does have the same developers.
I was checking Wikipedia to see what Diablo 2 sold. It only claims 4 million, but that's from <a href="http://www.gamesfirst.com/articles/diablo2_sales.htm">a press release about a year after the game came out</a>. I know Blizzard games tend to have nice catalog sales; do we know anything more recent than that?
For a bit of franchise history, I note that lower in the same press release they say the first Diablo hit 2.5 million.
@apujanata, Ah I see, that's not quite as bad then, though expectations are pretty high given the price is approaching the total subscriber base of WoW.
@Kentor, Diabloe 3 PC Stock is for World wide (GLS) sales, not just US sales. So, you need to add together NPD + Japan (Famitsu or M-Create) + Europe (Gfk + Charttrack) to get the "correct" value of GLS stock. And that GLS is Global Lifetime Sales, so it is not just "current" sales #.
I was referring to your "At the current price, you guys are expecting Diablo 3 North American sales to beat the lifetime", which is incorrect. You are correct in stating that NPD only track US.
@Kentor, When we talk about PC games, don't forget to include German market, in addition to North American.
Personally, I don't have confidence in shorting or buying NOW, since my estimate is around 8M - 10 M worldwide. Diablo 2 has lots of following, so I dare not short it.
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You are most likely right. All you have done is confirmed my point that 14 million copies (which was the price as of my posting) is a gross over estimation. My point of it being 10 million was simply to demonstrate that 14 was too high. Your points are strong arguments towards even my 10 million being an overestimation. Either way the message is the same. Sell people, sell. Excitement has inflated the price of this stock far higher then it is likely to actually reach.