Checking VGC, this game did not sell well in NA very well at all. Even with a large margin of error in their number, I would say this game is still over priced. Total predicted sales is under 50k.
Someone is slowly driving the price of this stock up it seems, by looking at the graph recently.
@apujanata, I must correct my estimate. I have mistaken this game with Tales of Vesperia. ToV in Japan will only hit 200K, tops. This game should have upper limit of 300K in Japan. Therefore, the estimated total is changed into 800 - 1.1 Million.
@kspraydad, Thank you for reminding me to analyze this stock.
I KNEW that this game should below 2 Million, therefore I shorted it during IPO Phase 2. I forgot to analyze them for after IPO price target, so without your question, I would have missed the opportunity to increase my short.
@kspraydad, you can use VGC's Tales of Symphonia (GC) distribution between Japan (320K), America (550K) and Others (230K) to estimate WW sales of ToS:DofNW. I think it is safe to say Japan sales will probably be 200K, tops. It could get 300K - 550K sales in US (VGC's data is not too different from NPD # in this specific case), and maybe 200 - 250K from Europe.
Total = 700 - 1 Million (min & max). I see healthy margin to short more from the current price of 161.22 DKP.
Media Crate does not show this title in the top 50 in Japan. VG (which basically parrots Media Crate until no longer in the top 10 has it at 220k after 7 weeks with the majority of sales in week one 164k.
Does this series have enough legs outside of Japan to reach current prediction levels (even after the 30% correction today)?
I have posted 6 new videos from WiiFanboy showing the introduction of the game. The title seems pretty interesting so far, worth a look. Check it out for yourselves at the video´s page.
Just so everyone knows, the title currently on this game submission is a combination of the English series name (Tales of Symphonia) and the specific Japanese name for this entry in the series (Ratatoskr no Kishi). This translates to "Knights of Ratatoskr", but the North American version will be titled "Dawn of the New World" instead.
4
Someone is slowly driving the price of this stock up it seems, by looking at the graph recently.