Indeed, Apple has disrupted the market in a way Nintendo and Sony could only wish for.
They have brought the distribution chain to the masses while retaining light quality control. Nintendo (and more recently Sony) has spent the past two decades building a locked in distribution chain. Their innovation in hardware has been the only thing driving their growth for the past 15.
Now it would seem the current crop of engineers and executives couldn't innovate their way out of a paper bag without sacrificing their secure development/distribution chain.
I'm loving it but I am sad, because mainly, I'm looking for something deeper and more moving than Angry Birds.
The problem in the portable gaming market is steep competition from smartphones where games sell for as low as $0.99. Nintendo has reported repeatedly that they are losing market share to iPhone games. Today, WSJ reported the Nintendo 3DS is selling far below expectations.
Right now, PS Vita stock is priced for it to outsell the PSP. This is highly unlikely given that the portable console market is shrinking dramatically.
By all measures the Wii has sold 86 million, averaging almost 5 years after release 200k in sales per week.
Portable system pipelines are traditionally shorter than home consoles.
Does anyone care to explain why we expect the PSV to perform as well as the Wii considering the following facts:
1. Sony's online strategy is a mess 2. Vita will compete against the DS, 3DS, WiiU, iPhone, Windows Phone, and Tablet PCs 3. The portable console market is not only eroding to competition from other sectors, but has never really topped 200 million in overall sales. 4. Despite what you may have heard, Nintendo still owns this market outselling Sony 4:1 5. PSP has sold only 68 million at retail over 7 years. 6. The Vita will not live 7 years.
That's a steep uphill battle for the PSV, an otherwise strong, and sexy piece of hardware.
4 years ago, I declared Wii and DS positions on TSE to be way off the mark. I was berated, asked to provide proof etc. Not once has anyone provided concrete information about the sustainability of these sales.
I suspect I will be correct again when it comes to Vita sales.
Kind of surprised we're not predicting a drop in overall totals for new hardware sales due to a protracted unavailability of Japanese parts and resources for NGP, 3DS.
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I'd like to add Apple better watch their back. Pendulums always swing back HARD! :)