I don't think that the DS game is a great comparison...that was a classic-style 2D platformer, compared with a 3D space-based platformer.
The best comparison is probably with Mario 64, which sold almost 12 million. However, I have my doubts about this stock. Console platformer Mario games really jump around the board when it comes to sales and I would think that this will be a very hard stock to predict. That being said, the price is incredibly high right now and I think it's a poor play for traders to keep their money tied up in this stock when games closer to release will move a lot faster (and you'll be able to afford more shares).
It is not completely accurate to compare the sells of this to that of a Super Mario on the GameCube, but to instead use a variety of selling numbers for the past few Super Mario games such as the recent one on the DS. Even though the New Super Mario Bros. game is a bit different type of a Super Mario game than Super Mario Galaxy, if you look at the numbers it sold on a game system that has a similar diversified audience as the Wii will most likely have, then a Mario game more directed towards more hardcore gamers can still thrive on a console with a wider audience and sell well. Not to mention the fact that Super Mario Sunshine was a game that was not as highly rated at the time as like when Super Mario 64 came out, so Galaxy being a more highly thought of title than Sunshine already, would be a better seller than Sunshine. Also, the more mainstream audience the Wii is going after is composed of many people who know who Mario is (since so many people do) or even have experience some of the Mario games in their past. This makes the mainstream audience for the Wii more willing to buy a more "gamer" game with Mario in it - leading to higher sells.
Keep in mind that many people buying Wiis may be non-gamers who aren't all that interested in "gamer" games and others may be actual gamers that aren't Mario fans that were convinced to buy a Wii for other reasons (controller, Virtual Console etc.). Comparing the attach rate of a Mario game on a console prodominantly purchased by Nintendo fans with a Mario game on a console that's supposed to appeal to basically everyone in soceity isn't very accurate.
Just a question but if Super Mario Sunshine sold 5.89 million copies on a system with only about 20 million total consoles sold, wouldn't that put this games sales much higher on a console thats predicted to sell 80 million? If 29.45% gamecube owners bought this game and the same is said for the Wii game (Though the wii game has a lot more hype pushing it), this game could sell 23.56 million copies... Plus I'm pretty sure this game has a lot more positive hype than Sunshine did...
Though there haven't been many main series Mario games in recent years, its interesting to note that the only one to sell less than 10 million copies is Mario Sunshine.
Thats not counting games like Wario Land 1 or Yoshi's Island, which were branded as Mario games, but had another main character. It also doesn't count Super Mario Bros. 2, since there were different versions... Though even then, the sales of the American version and the Japanese version total over 10 million...
Super Mario Bros, Super Mario Bros. 3, Super Mario Land, Super Mario Land 2, Super Mario World and Super Mario 64 all hit 10 million. And New Super Mario Bros. will hit the 10 million mark within a few months, having shipped 9.5 million so far. Super Mario All-Stars also reached the mark.
Most of these games are too old to really show much precedent, and there's only been two 3D Mario games, the second of which didn't even sell 6 million. But given how much more popular Wii is than GC, especially in Japan and Europe, and given that Mario as an astronaut is WAY COOLER than Mario as a janitor, I think 10 million is in play for this title, and 9 million is a fairly safe bet.
5 million NA + 1.5 million Japan + 2.5 million Europe, for example, is IMO in line with previous Mario games and with Wii's popularity.
We've all seen the hype and hands-on impressions of SMG. Its "predecessor" (if you can even call it that) Super Mario Sunshine, shipped 5.89mil on the Gamecube, which shipped ~21mil worldwide. Right now Super Mario Galaxy's stock price puts it about half million more sales than Super Mario Sunshine, which I feel is an unfair comparison for the selling power of both SMG (compared to SMS) and the Wii (compared to GC).
*all numbers from vgcharts, actual sales slightly lower (MC,NPD)
Aside: I'm basically just repeating the research made by espirit two months ago, which people must have overlooked.
Perhaps there should be a way to select "No thumbnail" if a thumbnail isn't available. That could be good for huge images too so that we don't have to wait for something massive to download. Then it just loads something like the No image boxes on Amazon.
The problem with limitations from other website regarding videos and bidding them down... Some websites such as Gamespot don't appear to allow you to get a small thumbnail preview image for videos posted onto the SE. Now, taking that into consideration I don't think videos should be bidded down because they don't have a preview image IF they have a good title explaining the video and the video works fine.
Joe80, I think Gamespot uses some kind of javascript for its thumbnails on videos and I haven't figured out a way to copy them either. Usually you just get a white box with a gray border.
Interesting that this stock has only had 1 down day in the past 30 days.
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The best comparison is probably with Mario 64, which sold almost 12 million. However, I have my doubts about this stock. Console platformer Mario games really jump around the board when it comes to sales and I would think that this will be a very hard stock to predict.
That being said, the price is incredibly high right now and I think it's a poor play for traders to keep their money tied up in this stock when games closer to release will move a lot faster (and you'll be able to afford more shares).