one more thought: i've argued with a bunch of people on this but i still hold my original theory that the initial and relative price point of the Wii had a lot to do with it's success, and since i believe in that I must also believe that once the 360/ps3 go under the lowend pricepoints they could have the chance of mass appeal. Then again they aren't marketed as something brand new so there's that psychological "it's new" thing to consider...
@FoxHoundADAM, The new console has probably been in development for a long time if it is just a 360 redesign. This isn't a new Xbox, it's just a new 360.
Depends I guess on how far the Natal project is. I am still not sure just how different this next model will be. For a start the location of the 360 will become important if the device is built in. I do however believe they will have Natal as a product on shelves in 2010 and I also believe Microsoft see winning Xmas periods as critical to the continued success so am expecting last quater 2010 for a release.
I find this highly unlikely. We're already half way through 2009. They would only have 12 months to finish designing and start builing the new console, and even then they'd be lucky to meet a winter 2010 release.
Things are going very smooth for the 360 right now. It has a strong base and is leading in digital distribution. I see 2011 as the earliest next console with 2012 being more realistic date.
I think 2010 is realistic although obviously the latter half of the year.
The fact we have is packaged with the unit should overcome one hurdle and with Wii Sports and Wii fit forming the bulk of Nintendo software sales one could argue that they should have enough time to introduce some basic games at launch with 3rd games to follow.
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