Not really related to any of the comments in particular so far, but I think it's pretty obvious that Microsoft's new console will be coming out in 2011/12, but that Sony will hold off as long as possible (until 3rd party support is completely gone). Microsoft still has quite a bit in the way of cash reserves, while Sony is suffering considerably. I think the real question is not if the market can support the Wii and 4-nonlead consoles, but if they can support the Wii and 3 non-lead consoles (since Sony won't be launching the PS4, even if Microsoft moves onto the next generation in 2011/12). If the games for the 720 can go multiplat onto the PS3 (while still not being 360 compatible), I think that's possible, but otherwise I doubt it. In any case, the 360's lifespan will peter out 2 years after their next console goes to market. The PS3's fate is the one that we should be talking about.
1st Party cant sustain a console, especially given how much manpower and time high end HD development takes. We're still not at GT5, Trico or God of War 3, games that were started near or prior to the launch of the machine. On the 3rd party front we have the likes of Final Fantasy 13. Once these games FINALLY come out, they go back to being tied up for YEARS.
Even with Nintendo's shorter cycles 1st party is not enough.
I would be suprised if Microsoft did bring out a new console 4 years before it ended the life of the 360 it would make no sense. It would on the otherhand make more sense to make incremental adjustments to the existing console ecking out its lifespan and maybe in late 2014 they introduce the new console.
I think Microsoft plans to integrate its console during this lifespan making it available in more than its current box. If they can get the 360 into livings rooms via the backdoor it is good way to introduce gamers who otherwise would not of been interested. Couple that with a mature Natal system and you could have a winner.
lots of ifs but this generation breaks lots of precedents in my opinion.
It doesnt matter if the hardware maker doesnt drop support if all of the 3rd party development stops. The community isnt going to simultaneously support both the market leader (Wii) and 4 non-lead machines (360+1, PS3+1), plus DS+PSP.
3rd parties largely abandoned xbox and gamecube before their respective makers did. Theres really no precedent for significant support for non-market leaders after they launch a new system.
@welshbloke,I recall them saying PS3 lifespan + a day but not exactly given 2015 as a goal. If they are taking the SONY approach they'll still have a new machine out there by 2011/2012.
Shane Kim, Microsoft's corporate VP in charge of strategy and business for Interactive Entertainment, was unsurprisingly upbeat about his company's performance at E3 this year, and revealed that Microsoft was working on a ten-year lifecycle for the Xbox 360 - vocalising for the first time a similar strategy to Sony's long-held plans"We firmly believe that the Xbox 360 has a life cycle through 2015 (ten years after the launch)," he said..
I think how good it is very important. If it actually does all it promises it has the potential to sell well. What is more important because we cannot restart this generation and as this generation is not ending soon is provide reasons to want it. That will be the critical and crucial key assuming that it is acutally good.
So it needs to be good and it needs a lot of support. They pull that off and the device may just suprise us yet.
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