I have posted this comment before, but for whatever reason, it disappeared. I am reposting it again, since I think it is quite important :
Don't forget that US NPD Nov 07 (does not include Canada) only cover November 4 - December 1. From IGN : Mass effect is released Nov 20 in US (only 2 weeks for US), Nov 22 in Australia (not covered by NPD US), Nov 23 in Europe (not covered by NPD).
Since 1 Milion is for WW, and it is 3 weeks figure (not two weeks for NPD Nov 07), and since we are not sure whether it is shipped (usual MSFT reference) or sold to (NPD reference), it is quite dangerous to assume too high a sales # for mass effect. A lot of DKP can be burned/lost if you estimate too high.
If you assume 40% US, 40% Europe, and 20% for the remaining region (CAnada + Australia + Singapore etc), and assuming 80% of Mass Effect is done on the first 2 weeks (front loaded), and assuming that the 1 Million figure is shipped figure, not sold figure, and using 80% sold through figure, then the US figure can be only as high as = 80% (for two weeks) x 80% (convert shipped to sold) x 40% (for US only) x 1 Million = 256K.
You can change the calculation to percentage that you are comfortable with, and change your bidding / position accordingly.
Additional note : I believe that the "less than 3 weeks" mentioned in the article is using Nov 20 - Dec 8, because : - it is less than 21 days (3 weeks) - IIRC, sales are usually tracked each week, with Saturday as the usual cut-off date.
@-THE-RAY-, didn't we already know from day 1 that Mass Effect was the first of a trilogy? I'm sure Microsoft entered a contract with BioWare before they described the series as a trilogy. Such contracts are still in effect even after a change in control.
An agreement has been made for Mass Effect 2 and 3 to both be published by Microsoft as well, with BioWare and EA to be listed as developers rather than publishers. BioWare, EA and Microsoft have yet to officially announce Mass Effect 2 although the sales and critical acclaim have been high so it would seem to be a likely possibility
@Alpha, I would tend to think that this is sold to consumers, if for nothing else than the fact that Mass Effect is a AAA game. I would have thought it odd if they'd not shipped out a million copies for the first month of release. I think sold means sold, not shipped.
@chill21genlee, additionally, is there any indication if this is "sold to retailers" or "sell through to consumers?" This makes a big difference.
For those who have been here for a while, remember how God of War II was bid up based on the press release of 1 million or so preorders, but the actual NPD numbers were much lower. It turned out those numbers were just sold to retailers.
Exactly... if those figures were US only, he would have proudly declared it. The fact that he wouldn't say makes it almost certain that they were global figures. This future is now artificially inflating.. unless VGC's numbers are completely out of line, it won't be anywhere near 1 million. Not to mention the fact that their stats are including Canada, which usually inflates their figures anywhere between 8 and 15% above US only sales figures
@Just_Ben, Yeah, don't forget that US NPD Nov 07 (does not include Canada) only cover November 4 - December 1. From IGN : Mass effect is released Nov 20 in US (only 2 weeks for US), Nov 22 in Australia (not covered by NPD US), Nov 23 in Europe (not covered by NPD).
Since 1 Milion is for WW, and it is 3 weeks figure (not two weeks for NPD Nov 07), and since we are not sure whether it is shipped (usual MSFT reference) or sold to (NPD reference), it is quite dangerous to assume too high a sales # for mass effect. A lot of DKP can be burned/lost if you estimate too high.
If you assume 40% US, 40% Europe, and 20% for the remaining region (CAnada + Australia + Singapore etc), and assuming 80% of Mass Effect is done on the first 2 weeks (front loaded), and assuming that the 1 Million figure is shipped figure, not sold figure, and using 80% sold through figure, then the US figure can be only as high as = 80% (for two weeks) x 80% (convert shipped to sold) x 40% (for US only) x 1 Million = 256K.
You can change the calculation to percentage that you are comfortable with, and change your bidding / position accordingly.
Reading the article again its likely the number is sold to retailers. If Microsoft refers to sold to customers they usually say something like "Based on Top 5 retailers".
2
Don't forget that US NPD Nov 07 (does not include Canada) only cover November 4 - December 1.
From IGN :
Mass effect is released Nov 20 in US (only 2 weeks for US), Nov 22 in Australia (not covered by NPD US), Nov 23 in Europe (not covered by NPD).
Since 1 Milion is for WW, and it is 3 weeks figure (not two weeks for NPD Nov 07), and since we are not sure whether it is shipped (usual MSFT reference) or sold to (NPD reference), it is quite dangerous to assume too high a sales # for mass effect. A lot of DKP can be burned/lost if you estimate too high.
If you assume 40% US, 40% Europe, and 20% for the remaining region (CAnada + Australia + Singapore etc), and assuming 80% of Mass Effect is done on the first 2 weeks (front loaded), and assuming that the 1 Million figure is shipped figure, not sold figure, and using 80% sold through figure, then the US figure can be only as high as = 80% (for two weeks) x 80% (convert shipped to sold) x 40% (for US only) x 1 Million = 256K.
You can change the calculation to percentage that you are comfortable with, and change your bidding / position accordingly.
Additional note : I believe that the "less than 3 weeks" mentioned in the article is using Nov 20 - Dec 8, because :
- it is less than 21 days (3 weeks)
- IIRC, sales are usually tracked each week, with Saturday as the usual cut-off date.