According to the company, the system sold a further 8.3m units across Europe in 2008, a 58pc rise from 2007 and the largest annual sales of home consoles in European history. "This proves that Nintendo’s wish to expand the gaming population has strong potential in Europe." Earlier this week, data from GfK Chart Track showed that the Wii sold 2.9m units in the UK alone during 2008, bringing the installed base in the region to 4.9m.
@apujanata, This late short is very surprising, especially since all indicator (EEDAR, pachter, VGC) seem to point to 3.0 - 3.25 Million for Dec 08 NPD.
The funny thing is, there was no Press release from Nintendo yet :D. As someone short on this, I will take this silence as "no record breaking" # to boast about. As someone long on this, you would interpret this silence as "not yet time to reveal it, since Nintendo didn't get NPD yet" or "Nintendo is so hush-hush, they didn't want people to know that they are successful" or "Nintendo PR are on mass holiday this week".
(the last sentence is a joke, just in case you didn't realize it).
@vGInfidel, Big downward movement today, towards 2.3 Million. Short from (possibly new) player, or is it someone long who cleaned up before NPD day ? Is it you, vGInfidel, or is it someone else ?
I think we will have to just make a gentlemans bet and not have any money riding on it as it is unfortunately impractical. I don't fancy losing a few million DKP and then having to go through and upbid you 2000 times (which is what a 2million bet would be) should it fall below 2 million. I think we have enough money riding on it as it is with both of us having about 50k stock, thats over a 10million investment for each of us. I too cant wait for the numbers, should be an interesting evening.
@vGInfidel, "I don't see any possibility of it dropping below 2million to be honest."
Willing to do some 1 : 20 bet with me ? I'll bet you 100K DKP (or 10 upbids) against your 2M DKP (or 200 upbids). :) I will win IF Wii Dec 08 NPD fall below 2 Million, and I will lose IF Wii Dec 08 NPD is above 2 Million. I need that 1:20 advantage since my chances of winning are very low (less than 5%).
My sources estimated 1.7 Million Wii for Nov 08 NPD, which is significantly higher than EEDAR's 1.45 Million and VGC's 1.6 Million (I don't remember Pachter's estimate for Nov 08). I can hardly wait for NPD, with so much money riding on it :D.
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says that, with Wii supplies significantly increased over the holiday season, the console sold an estimated 3.25 million units last month. Pachter estimates 1.35 million Xbox 360 consoles, and 750,000 PS 3 consoles. Pachter predicts a $2.625 billion sales month for December 2008, a 10 percent increase over the year prior, with $2.42 billion in next-gen software sales.
Interesting that your source contradicts Patcher, EEDAR and VGC sources who all have estimates of over 3million. I believe they had extra supply available, based on a few tidbits i've spotted around the net, so i believe it will be above the 3million mark. I've got 46k stock invested at 235 price point, so if it is 3million i stand to win about 3million. If it's 2million then i 'only' lose 1.5million. I don't see any possibility of it dropping below 2million to be honest. I don't think Nintendo would have flooded the November market if they didn't have at least that many for December.
I believe they are over-reacting (over correcting) in their Wii prediction. Of course there exist possibilities that my source is wrong, and I suffer heavy loss. In that scenario, it is possible that EEDAR underpredict again, and NPD release Wii as 4 Million.
What is encouraging is the fact that second hand prices are still higher than standard price, at US$ 350. This means that there is still sold out situation, but it was not as severe as Dec 07 ("second hand 'gray' prices for the Wii declined as a result from USD 470 to USD 350", taken from the article)
My track record for predicting Wii S/W is very good, only 2 minor losses (SSBB April 08 and Wii Play Nov 08). My track record for Wii H/W is also pretty good, only one losses since Dec 07 (Dec 07, 17% loss). So I hope that my previous track record hold up, and I can win big this time.
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