@deftangel, You cash out to avoid taking a "possible" permanent loss. Have you think about the other scenario : the price never went to 3.2, because other player (probably won't be me, since I am getting close to my limit now) might keep the price down, and you LOST your opportunity to win big this month (assuming your original prediction come true).
I currently have 50K stocks, with average selling price of 260. If NPD have it at 3.2 (like EEDAR predicted), I will lose 3 Million. If NPD have it at 2 Million (it could be lower, but let's say 2 Million), like I predicted, then I win 3 Million. If my most pessimistic estimate (1.7 Million) is right, I stand to win 4.5 Million, but this figure is reaching.
1:1 bet is something that I normally would avoid, but I am willing to trust my source for this.
So they have been undertracking the Wii it seems, do you think then that this 3.2million estimate is an over reaction to this? Or do you think that they could be under again?
Im guessing you believe it to be the former.
At the moment I'm up 2.5million or so for the day anyway.
Well I don't think anyone saw November coming and both EEDAR and Pachter have said 3m. No smoke without fire. I should have cashed out at 2.3m and not been greedy :)
Anyhow, I'm actually 600k down for the day having got completely out. That's not too bad and I can re-evaluate for a couple of days and short again at a much less risky position if I feel the need. To be honest, I'm seeing a couple of other opportunities that I could leverage now I've got some margin back.
"I actually have an inkling the analysts are wrong but it's not worth the risk so I covered as much as I could just now."
Deftangel, If you feel that you are right, you shouldn't worry going against EEDAR. Their track record for S/W is good, but their H/W Track record is so-so.
In Nov, their worst prediction is undertracking Wii. 1.45 Million prediction vs. 2.04 Million actual = 28% deviation.
In Oct, their worst prediction is undertracking X360. 270K prediction vs 371K actual = 27.22% deviation. Their Wii prediction is 6.6% undertracked in Oct.
In Sep, their worst prediction is undertracking Wii. 600K prediction vs 687K actual = 12.66% deviation.
In other words, don't worry going against analyst, whether Patcher or EEDAR.
Nintendo hardware and software saved the US games market during December, with software for the systems accounting for over 50pc of all games sold during the month. That's according to Jesse Divnich of EEDAR, as the company estimates the Wii sold over 3.2m units during the month – the highest on record for any single console platform. "Without these sales, the industry would have likely felt the full wrath of the recession - much like other industries closely linked to gaming
@vGInfidel, I think Zukaus are the one driving up the price today. All in all, there are about 4 Million DKP he purchased within 30 minutes.
Zukaus, I had 10 Million DKP shorted already in this stock. If you wanted to buy more, I am willing to setup up those short order at higher price (to minimize my risk, and compensate for the short order I sacrificed (removed / cancelled) at other places).
I could do with some of my margin being released as well. The 10 million I've got invested has destroyed my short margin down to 3-4million and so I'm not putting downward pressue on many stocks and they are starting to gain a little causing me further losses, should be able to make a decent profit knocking them back down though. :-)
1
You cash out to avoid taking a "possible" permanent loss. Have you think about the other scenario : the price never went to 3.2, because other player (probably won't be me, since I am getting close to my limit now) might keep the price down, and you LOST your opportunity to win big this month (assuming your original prediction come true).
I currently have 50K stocks, with average selling price of 260. If NPD have it at 3.2 (like EEDAR predicted), I will lose 3 Million. If NPD have it at 2 Million (it could be lower, but let's say 2 Million), like I predicted, then I win 3 Million. If my most pessimistic estimate (1.7 Million) is right, I stand to win 4.5 Million, but this figure is reaching.
1:1 bet is something that I normally would avoid, but I am willing to trust my source for this.