I have found some margin so I just took those two buy offers. It's a bit more risky but what the hell, apujanta's calculation of my risk means I am less worried. What's a couple of million :D
There are 5 players with greater networth long on Wii / Dec08 though of course we've no idea when they got involved, could easily be before Nov NPD.
@deftangel, I invested a lot of short into Dec future, and now are out of margin. I hope that you and I are both correct in our estimate of 1.5 - 2 M.
I wonder who is it that put up those buy offer at 2.3 Million price point. I think I bought 3 - 4 Million DKP at that price point. Looks like it is a high networth player.
Hurting grandmother's feeling is not a good attitude, especially when you are 26 years old. I would suggest that his girlfriend should leave him, since it (the violence) could get even worse after marriage.
@deftangel, So you are not the one driving down the price yesterday. I cashed out my long at 2.74M price point, so your short and my cash-out are almost at the same price. :)
I think the meltdown for 1.5 - 2 Million will be way more "crazy" compared to 2.5 - 3 Million. I mean, 2.5 - 3 Million is the conventional wisdom, so reaching that status is "normal" for most people. :) Shorting at 2.7 and result at 3 Million means only 10% loss, so it is no big deal, IMO :).
35% (limit) x 10% (loss) x 25 Million (your networth) = 700K DKP loss.
If the Dec 08 # is 4 Million (very unlikely IMO), then your loss will be massive :(
I was shorting at 2.7m, didn't push the price down yesterday.
I'm basing my short on the Reggie's comments that they shipped "roughly" 50% more this year and I believe that to be heavily front loaded into November for the Black Sunday weekend (where clearly they sold what they shipped).
So my calculation is 1.5 * (Nov 2007 + Dec 2008) - 2m.
A complete punt to be honest but I'll either lose nothing or get a big win. If they hit 3m for December then it'll be worth the net loss to see the meltdown :D
Very interesting movement of the Dec 08 Futures today and yesterday. Very big downward movement. Is there something (other than rumour/private info) that I didn't know happened yesterday ?
VGC so far put Wii 3 weeks sales for NPD Dec as 2,345,699, for 3 weeks (week ending Dec 6 till week ending Dec 20). The downward movement pushed the price to 2.01 Million for 5 weeks. Very interesting.
To deftangel, any comment ? You are the highest networth player that shorted them.
Note : Long player from Top 25 Networth : Gaara42, Mushashi, vGInfidel, ErikAston, starship.
I don't disagree, however as a "conservative" company I'm pointing out it says a lot about Nintendo's expectations for this year, which you would view as "conservative" that they are *upping* production, given the recession that is likely, strength of the yen etc.
When DS sales went down, Nintendo reacted, even though DS sales were still "good". I believe they'll introduce some more SKU's into the Japanese market this year, new colours etc. to boost Wii sales in Japan.
@PhilHarrision, From what I can see, the name of the partner / vendor is different. In your article, it is Fujisoft. In mrahaju's article, it is Dentsu.
Fujisoft service started Dec 08, while Dentsu's start 2009. Fujisoft's is managed by Fujisoft, and cover TV and video, while Dentsu's cover special video (cartoon etc), and it is not clear who manage it.
Seems like either Nintendo switched partner (from Fujisoft to Dentsu), or they have 2 differing services aimed at different demographics.
@deftangel, Japanese sales are down this year, but not by nearly enough to counter the increase elsewhere. Wii US 2008 sales will be greater than what Wii US 2007 and Wii Japan 2007 were added together.
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I have found some margin so I just took those two buy offers. It's a bit more risky but what the hell, apujanta's calculation of my risk means I am less worried. What's a couple of million :D
There are 5 players with greater networth long on Wii / Dec08 though of course we've no idea when they got involved, could easily be before Nov NPD.
starship, ErikAston, Gaara42, Mushashi & vGIfindel
At any rate, in order to break top 25 I probably need to win a bigish bet against players with higher networth than me so more risk is acceptable.