Those who purchase Halo Wars will be treated to an exclusive sneak peak of Peter Jackson's Halo: Chronicles ala Zone of the Enders and Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty.
Visually this game is looking rather different to other RTS. The camera appears to be able to view the horizon, and the army pathfinding and flocking navigation AI looks suberb. They aren't just standing there in sterile rank and file, but pushing towards the enemy.
@Laoldar, Then that means the loss (from potential $) Microsoft suffer is even bigger. Instead of my previous calculation of $40 / game, it is now $50 / game.
Retailers don't make $20 off each video game. Even at Wal Mart (where they likely get some of the best wholesale prices) they only make about 15-20% profit off each video game (or about $10).
I believe that Halo Wars is only a timed exclusive on X360, and will be ported to PC later on. I don't have any evidence that it will be ported to PC later on, but it is a logical assumption. I believe most PC gamer, especially who didn't have X360, will also have the same assumption. Microsoft will not kill the X360 version sales by releasing info that it will be coming to PC version BEFORE launch of the X360 version, but I believe it will have a press release 2 or 3 months AFTER X360 version release.
I believe this is a good stock to shortsell on, but you should expect a bumpy ride up until the release of information that it is going to be released in PC later on.
Why is the free bundling loss so small ? a couple of dollars only ?
Isn't X360 games usually sold at $60 MSRP ? Even if we deduct the say $20 retailer profit from the $60 MSRP, we are still talking about $40 dollar potential profit that Microsoft lose because of free bundling.
If we talk about 2 Million unit (200 DKP you mentioned), we are talking about $ 80 Million. Of course, Microsoft (as a whole, not just the entertainment division) is a big company, and has +1 Billion $ cash surplus every quarter, but to say $ 80 Million is small money, especially when Entertainment Divison already lost billions US$ (IIRC) as cumulative loss since launch of XBOX in 2001.
@Gaara42, I do believe that Ensemble Studios has the ability to make a good RTS consoles game, but it all depends on whether they are able to make the gameplay and controls work well on the 360. Ensemble Studios has a proven track record, but only on the PC - this does help with some facets of making any RTS game. I believe sales could take a hit if this title gets ported to the PC because that is the platform of choice for most RTS fans because the controls work the best thus far.
@ivanassen, Microsoft is investing in trying to create a good RTS game for the 360 (with using one of their larger, well-known RTS studios to do so), but whether this investment will produce a game with solid controls and gameplay is yet to be seen.
The free bundling doesn't incur as much loss as you'd think - it's a couple of dollars max. And Microsoft gains continuing presence of the Halo brand, and nurturing a new type of console gamer, the RTS gamer. There's a theory that Microsoft's success in NA is due to them successfully converting PC gamers to Xbox 360; to complete this conversion, they need the RTS and MMO gamers, and this is why I think they'll invest in Halo Wars.
This is why target for the stock is above 200.0 DKP.
Viva Pinata was a game targeted at children (even if it was a complex strategy game), so why wouldn't Microsoft bundle a game aimed at bringing in a new audience to their console. Halo Wars is not meant to grow the audience but to take advantage of the already built in audience.
I agree that Halo 3 would have sold less would it have had a different name, but the fact remains that the people I know (they have to be a small portion of the 5 million who bought the game, no one has that many friends, I am making an observation based on the data I currently have) bought it because they trust the brand, the know that it will deliver a high quality FPS, both single player and multiplayer. They don't buy it just because its Halo, but because it was a name synonymous with quality, much like people buy BMW or Aston Martin because they are brands whose name is synonymous with quality. But that doesn't mean everything that those companies make is successful, just the same here.
Like apujanata said, Halo doesn't have a proven track record and I don't see the brand carrying this game. Also, if they don't announce other Halo related things, public awareness of the brand will fade and it will lose much of its power to sell games. And I still don't trust the ensemble studios, who have never made a console game let alone a RTS console game, can somehow master how to make controls on a console work on their first try, especially with their quality slipping as of late.
Due to all of this I think this game will sell max 140DKP.
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