@Gaara42, this stock always spikes after a correction. A lot of support. I saw a post by Ensemble Studios a while back asking people to come on the simExchange to trade Halo Wars stock. I would assume those people would keep buying.
I don't have much faith in Halo fanboys, because I know many of them and none of them are considering picking up this game. 2.3 million for an RTS on a console (especially the Xbox360, if it was on the PS2, maybe), seems absurdly high to me, that would make it the third best selling game for the Xbox360.
I doubt Microsoft will be able to create the kind of hype it has created for the FPS Halo games, RTSs don't have blood-pumping action, you can't have the surge of adrenaline that an "Over Kill" or "Killmonjaro" can produce. Because of this, it would be hard to market this to the legion of teenagers and 20 somethings who buy the Halo FPSs.
Also, the quality of Ensemble Studios's games has been slipping since AoE2, while they are still a top notch developer, I don't think they can be trusted to deliver a sure-fire AAA title. Since I expect this to fall just short of being a AAA title, I do not see RTS players picking it up en masse, causing it to lose its largest potential audience.
For all these reasons (and ones I have stated before), I think this game will sell at most 1.6 million copies (160DKP).
"Also, you slightly contradicted yourself when you said, 'there isn't a huge fanbase for console RTS. However, this lack of a fanbase does not mean that everyone has tried an RTS'."
What I meant by fanbase was the current amount of people that enjoyed playing console RTS. Also that the people who have not tried this game-type might like it if they did.
The Halo name sells. The name has sold the books, the FPS games, led to the production of a movie, and it will definitely sell this RTS. How much it sells though, will be determined when it is released. I feel it will sell around 2.3 million copies in it's lifetime, and thus the stock should trade at around 220-240DKP.
There are radical fanboys of the Halo name, and if the hype around the game is raised to the same hype that Halo 3 has received, then the initial sales of the game will be all it needs to propel it to the top of the charts. One of the reasons the original Xbox was such a desired console was the Halo craze, just as the anticipated release of Halo 3 sold the 360.
I do have faith in the fanboys, and this is why Halo Wars will sell so many copies.
(I'm slow right now due to lack of sleep, so if I sound like a complete idiot don't make too much fun of me)
People do not drop $60 to 'test' if a game is right for them. They wait for reviews or impressions from their friends. Also, you slightly contradicted yourself when you said, "there isn't a huge fanbase for console RTS. However, this lack of a fanbase does not mean that everyone has tried an RTS". The fanbase is the potential number of people who would pick this up. How does a game with a lacking fanbase hope to draw in new people?
If this was a movie, which would cost less than $10 to rent, yes people would experiment more, but people generally stay with what they know will please them, if they have never played an RTS before, but play FPSs all the time, why would they trade that sure-fire satisfaction for something they are not sure will please them.
Games are an investment (much more so than movies or music, due to cost) and people would rather go with something solid than something that might not have any gain. Due to this I do not think people who own Halo 1-3 will flock to pick up this game, as they will be more than satisfied playing Halo 1-3 or buying some other FPS. Due to this, and the fact that the current prediction would make this one of the best selling Xbox360 games (in an unpopular genre on the Xbox360), it seems unlikely that this will be able to sell more than 1.6 million copies (160DKP). Also, if this game is not AAA, then it sales will be even lower.
Gaara42 also proves a point, i myself bought this stock at 200+k and i think i have to change my mind now and sell it at a loss but you never know halo fans outthere...respect to gaara!
As someone said earlier, there isn't a huge fanbase for console RTS. However, this lack of a fanbase does not mean that everyone has tried an RTS. If anything, the Halo label, if it doesn't sell itself, might make people want to test this RTS and see if it is the right game for them. I may be biased by my love of the Halo series, but I still believe that this game will hook both the RTS players and the Halo fans.
Because some can't accept a valid point and only see that they lost money, so they put more money in a stock so they "make" more money, until they face reality :o)
This stock continues to crawl back up, does anyone have a good reason why this game, a RTS on a console, will sell 2 million copies. C&C3:TW sold 440,000 on 360 and Lord of the Rings: Battle for Middle Earth for the Xbox360 sold around 300,000.
It seems that the Xbox360 does not have a large base of user who want to play RTS games. Looking at the list of million selling Xbox360 games, there are no strategy games there, it is mostly FPSs, RPGs, sports games and racing games. From this I very much doubt that this game will sell more than Call of Duty 3, Tom Clancy Rainbow Six: Vegas, Madden NFL 07, Guitar Hero II and various other games in more popular genres than RTS on consoles. This game should be at around 150-160DKP
1