This was the 12th best selling console game in May and should benefit from the eventual price cut that it will see. Both the original film (750k through January 07) and its sequel (560k through January 07) had their titles in the GCN's top 50 software sales through its lifespan as they had continued success for some time after the film's release.
I find it difficult to imagine that the Wii title will have a colossal drop off compared to the previous generation, let alone not sell at least a few hundred thousand copies in Europe. The stock is at worst fairly priced in its current form.
This week's sales in Spider-Man 3 for the Wii is still in decline. Only 7,624 copies sold in VGC estimates. 112,436 copies sold total. It will need to keep this sales level for at least 58 weeks in order to meet its prediction. This game will keep on dropping and dropping until it reaches a closer price to actual sales.
Sorry for the slow response I've been busy but you bring up an interesting question, where do I find the balance between overhyped and overvalued, and how does that affect what I choose to short?
I would say hype is highly subjective. What you may perceive as overhyped may be reasonable to others. I've noticed a lot of people going short the new Wii Metroid because historically the game has not sold at the 4 million level, perhaps believing the game is overvalued and the hype too great. But that does not necessarily mean that it won't sell 4 million in this generation and it seems that many people whether they be new to the SimExchange or not think it will sell more than 4 million, believing the game is undervalued and the hype is justified.
The thing is we won't truly know the difference between overhyped and underhyped until the game is released. After a game is released and we get some numbers, hype really isn't part of the equation anymore and only numbers matter. That's often a good time to start shorting. There's a stock market cliche that goes "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news." I think a similar strategy works here on the SimExchange for now. Buy upcoming hype, sell on the release.
Most of my short positions are on games that are already released or are close to a release date. I don't want to take the risk of prolonged hype when there are so many overvalued games that are already past their release dates and any hype that comes with an upcoming release. If I were to short a stock that was not close to release I would have to believe it to be greatly overvalued, more so than a released game.
But isn't that against the spirit of the exchange, don't you want to make the predictions more accurate by shorting games you believe to be overvalued whether they are released or not? Well yes I believe in the power of predictive markets, but it's not my responsibility to make sure every stock is at a fair value all the time. My responsibility/goal is to make as much DKP as I can and if everyone does just that ultimately the stocks will naturally go toward a more fair value as time passes.
Maybe in the future there will be more short opportunities in unreleased games if they get extremely overvalued, but for now I believe the fastest and easiest money is in released games that are already overvalued and past most of their hype.
Zukaus- Where do you find your balance between over-valued and over-hyped(and over-valued)?
I have lost a lot of money shorting a stock that is over-hyped (as well as over-valued) but i was losing money so fast because people were buying i had to get out from under it. Most of these stocks are still going up.
Since futures are the only thing here that adhere to actual numbers, everything else is on subjective value. Please let meknow as i would love to endeaver in shorting stocks.
I agree with you on this one rp_stitch this game is overvalued and will continue to fall. I'm also short this one and for what it's worth I've made most of my gains going short stocks. I'm impressed with those who have made a lot of DKP primarily by going long but I think going short stocks is definitely where a lot of DKP can be made.
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