@Gaara42, I'm not saying its not going to be released, all I'm saying is that is does not have a release date. If it doesn't have a release date we don't have an idea of what the PS3 userbase will be at the time of this games release.
This game will more likely than not get released (Sony has hyped it to much only to cancel the project). From that we can make predictions as to how well it will sell based off of the information we have so far concerning the game's quality, marketability, sale numbers of other games in its genre and the sales numbers of the platform it will be launched on. As time goes on we will have more data on how games like Killzone sell on the PS3 and we can use these as indications of how well this title will sell. How far the release of a game is should not matter, as the main point of this exchange (before the futures) help a company gauge how well the crowd thinks a game will sell over its lifetime in advanced of the game's release (and afterwards if conditions change).
@Gaara42, Yes the point of the SE is to make predictions based on how a game will sell before it is released. However, this game has no release date yet so that makes it very difficult to pin down what it should be at. I thought people & Kultofcows said that games without release dates should no longer get put on the SE until they do get one. This game got on the SE before that mindframe/policy. Perhaps I was a little strict in my less statement. While I think predictions can be made, having no release date will make it much harder to make accurate predictions for KZ2.
@Gaara42, yes I don't know why Joe80 is saying that predictions can't be made for a game w/o a release date...since that is what we're doing with most of the stocks here.
I think the biggest factor here is the reviews. The first Killzone was heavily marketed but received very mediocre at best reviews and sales were rather weak (relative to the amount of buzz the game got). If the game itself isn't good, the buzz from marketing isn't going to carry this game.
Given how Sony's PS3 games have been delivering, such as Lair, I would not be surprised if this was another high profile flop. I would say the stock is too high given the risk of the game quality not delivering. It would be interesting to have a Metacritic future listed for this one just to see what people are expecting.
Joe80, isn't the point of this site to make predictions about how well a game will sell even before it is released? I think predictions for this game can be made and they are by people buying and selling shares, not just by the people who post comments.
I agree, this game is overpriced by how much is questionable. While this game has been receiving a lot of hype, the same thing happened to Lair and look how that ended up. I do not think that this game will reach 1.6 million, a range of 1.2-1.4million (120-140DKP) seems more realistic with the known install base of the PS3 and the previous game selling below 1 million copies.
This stock is one that is getting out of control. It appears its been largely overlooked as the stock price keeps rising. Killzone was a sub-million copy game. How are we even forecasting an 80% increase for a sequel on a console with a much smaller install base than the PS2?
Buzz has been growing for Guerilla's upcoming Killzone 2 ever since the famous E3 2005 trailer and continuing on through the game's fantastic showing at this year's E3. Today at the 2007 Games Conference in Leipzig, Guerilla developers gave us a tour of a good chunk of the first level which was initially demoed back in July during E3.
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I'm not saying its not going to be released, all I'm saying is that is does not have a release date. If it doesn't have a release date we don't have an idea of what the PS3 userbase will be at the time of this games release.