About the current price (avarage) and I am short. 1.2 Million is what I figured all along, looking at your caclulation I would go further down, because we are talking about 360 not PS3 which has software sales problem in Europe and Japan.
@Just_Ben, Oops. Forgot about Europe & Japan. I'm sorry. I believe that Japan will not have big #, since Burnout 3 :Takedown only sold about 52K PS2 in one month in my database, which means 100K max for its GLS (shoud have no legs).
1.5 is to convert 2 weeks sales # into one months sales # (assume 50% of the first 2 weeks sales are sold in the 3rd and 4th week). x4 is to convert first month sales # into GLS. It should be x3, not x4.
In UK, Burnout 3: Takedown got Platinum, which means sales # between 300K (platinum) and 600K (double platinum). If UK is 40% Europe, it is safe to assume Burnout 3: Takedown have say 400K / 40% = 1 Million (max) in Europe).
Since PS3 is not as popular as PS2, let's assume that PS3 software is only 50% of PS2 S/W, especially since I heard that burnout paradise are not the "normal" burnout style game.
Revised calculation : US : 144K x 1.5 x 3 = 648K Japan : 100K x 0.5 = 50K Europe : 1000K x 0.5 = 500K
So GLS should be 1.2 Million, which is still way below the current price of 1.84 Million.
I wouldn't invest in this stock, since I don't play this kind of game (racing/driving), and I feel that not knowing about the game is not a good way of investing, since you are just shooting in the dark.
If you don't mind me asking, at what price point did you get in (in this stock) ? If it is way below today price, maybe you should take profit. The stock price is going down in the last week.
I may also invest in GTA4 near release. Investing NOW is asking for headache.
I personal already have, it was near release, GTA is not. As said, I may get into GTA in march or april, I may. I don't understand how you calculated that 864k. Why x1.5x4? Is that including EU?
2 weeks sales gives you 144K sales. That means = 144 x 1.5 x 4 = 864K GLS (or 86.4 pricepoint), max. Current price is over-valued, but do you really dare short this ? After all the problem of GTA4 GLS ?
"It's our intention to extend the life of Burnout with additional DLC in the near future," said the EA representative in an email. "As mentioned, we don't want to split the online community between those that have content and those that don't. Our intention is to offer both free and paid for DLC in a way that enables everyone to 'see' the content, even if they have not paid for it."
actually the whole cod4 requiring a hard drive thing was false. for whatever reason the icon for hdd required was on the tentative box art. closer to release infinity ward said the game doesn't need a hard drive and it was just a test for placement of icons
1
About the current price (avarage) and I am short. 1.2 Million is what I figured all along, looking at your caclulation I would go further down, because we are talking about 360 not PS3 which has software sales problem in Europe and Japan.