@chill21genlee, Thanks. A) I forgot to include GTA in my discussion, but I will say that it is predicted to sell 19 million when you include the 360 version, with 12.4 of that on 360. B) I think GT5 will move PS3 consoles, maybe like a 25% increase in monthly sales in its 1st month, depending on other market/games' variables. Whether or not this is considered meaningful I don't know for sure. C) no comment D) I think it is possible GT5 can reach its current price, GC had 2 games best that price on a userbase of 22 million. I won't say for sure that GT5 will reach its current price, it may not.
Joe, Thanks for the clarification (I up bid it). The main points I was trying to make and still believe are that: A) GT5 will NOT sell nearly as many copies as GTAIV, as per current value B) GT5 will not be a "console selling" game in any meaningful manner, especially not to the extent that the price of the future would see to speculate. C) Most of the futures for PS3 are similarly overvalued, at least until such a time as Sony finds a way to at least double their installed base. I believe they are starting to turn the corner, but that it will be an incredibly slow burn for them, and that those waiting for Sony to recapture past glories as the undisputed console king are in for a disappointment. D) Given the average life cycle of generation of consoles, I cannot believe that 6.3 Million copies of this game is a reasonable price
@chill21genlee, I wasn't comparing sales on those consoles to sales on the present consoles. I was comparing the sales of GT, MGS, & FF on the same consoles. And I did say that each game on PS3 looks to be a bit overvalued, which I had based on the userbase of the PS3 compared to its predecessors. Stats were from VGC.
@Laoldar, For PS1 I doubt it was, given how long after PS1 release that GT1 arrived. For PS2 it may have helped. I'll have to look into this when I have more free time.
OK you're probably right, more people are familiar with Halo due to playing at their friend's house, but more people are likely to purchase GT5 if past sales are any indication.
I would disagree about more people being familiar with GT than Halo. I only own Halo Combat Evolved (PC) and have not bought a Halo game since Not because I did not like the game but because I had friends who had Halo 2 and now Halo 3 for their Xboxs. My other friends and me usually just have two or three people who actually buy Halo then we just use extra controllers (which I already have for my PC to play Pro Evo with). I know a lot less people who go over to their friend's place to play GT, due to this I think less people are acquainted with the GT series than the Halo series.
I own all the games in the GT series but that is only because I would not go over to my friend's place to play GT, the series hasn't geared toward that type of play as much. The current price for GT is pretty good, since most of the people I know who have bought GT games in the past can't wait for GT5, most are just waiting for the PS3 price to drop and this game to be released.
All great points and statistics, but also all comparing against consoles that had MASSIVELY larger installed bases in the beginning, middle and twilight of almost every one of those games' sales cycles.
I guess I just don't believe GT5 can be a "console selling app" based on the fact that it may have been for the PS2. The PS2 came out in an era where it was primed to crush the market, whereas Sony is now essentially on their heels and in damage control phase in terms of the console wars. Thanks for the stats, though, mind sharing where you got them?
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I'm not worried about how it sells, in it's lifetime, it'll easily sell more than 10 million copies worldwide.