As I mentioned in my previous post, the reasonable price of this stock is only 5 - 6 million. And yet, as of now, the price of this stock is 908.42 (9 Million). Is there something wrong with my calculation, to create this much disrepancy ? (-30% discrepancy)
@sagexsdx, When people try to say for instance MGS4 will only sell ~2-2.5 million because MGS3 only sold ~4 million on a larger userbase; that is when I try to say that you can't trend series' game sales linearly.
Since that series has had its first game on each console its been released on sell the best. I believe you need to figure that into the equation. MGS2 sold ~5.6 million. Thus if we do not just trend a series by its linear sales, we can use that data to come up with a more reasonable prediction for MGS4 to sell ~3-5 million.
Same point would apply to the FF series, Gran Turismo, & other franchises. We shouldn't try to predict sales based on linear trends because we need to take into account the first title on a console phenomenon. That is all I am trying to say.
I am not trying to claim actual sale #s based on what the last first game released on a console game sold (in the series), just using that data to help gain insight beyond linear projections.
i think it's important to figure into predictions when it comes to subsequent games after the first game on that generation's console. but in terms of the first one's sales, i think it isn't really useful in determining how well it will sell. if anything it'll just be an indicator of how well that franchise as a whole will do during the lifetime of the console.
what im saying is that just because the first game sells the best the whole generation doesnt mean that it gives us a reference point to compare to since the other games haven't come out yet.
@sagexsdx, Yes it did, but it still easily sold more than the later FF releases on PS2. Which is the point I've been trying to make for a long time, that many series have their best sales with their first release on each console in comparison to later releases of games in the series on each console. Important to figure into predictions.
Fear not, says the comforting voice of long time series character designer Tetsuya Nomura, the long wait for the Fabula Nova Crystallis collection will be over soon enough. Not only does he swear by the game's 2008 release date, he teases at a playable demo for FFXIII on the PlayStation Network a while before the game is released, to show off the game's revamped battle system.
I'd like to point out that this article has an argument I've been writing about for a long time on the SE in reference to a number of game sales predictions for games on the SE, including FF, MGS, & Gran Turismo.
That in predicting sales many AAA titles such as the ones from these series have better sales with their first games released on each console in comparison to their later releases on the same console, and this is important to keep in mind when making predictions.
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What is your own expectation of this stock ? Is 9 Million too high for you ?