@zeromous, I tried checking PC sales on Wiki I don't see a listing, care to provide a link? I got my numbers from the Wiki page for Lineage.
What are you talking about I can't have it both ways?! You're saying SC1 can't be popular when it first released and at the present time? When in fact that CAN BE true, just at different levels. Besides, I was talking about SC1 the game in popularity for when it first came out & SC the FRANCHISE for popularity today. People are salivating for the release of a new game in the FRANCHISE.
I'm not saying TV shows are a recent development, they've been around at least since 2003. TV shows are as much popularity for the FRANCHISE as they are for the original game.
You disagree SC1 was initially panned? Go research it then and you will find out when they showed the game to the press at E3 it was ridiculed.
So now SSBB is a niche title? Yet it's predicted to sell more than SC2, 16 million (and more realistically will likely sell near 10 million). You're generalizing sales of core games on Wii to PC, saying that the same audience that is so into the Wii makes up the people who will or will not decide to play SC2. That's wrong. The Wii & PC are to different beasts. Those interested in SC2 are core gamers, not the casual audience the Wii is marketed to.
Your subtle insults are not attractive either.
I'm not saying WoW converts are going to turn to SC2 in mass. Blizzard has defined itself as a quality developer more and more over the years. It's their reputation & IPs they have built up. It's NOT that WoW players are going to be interested in SC2.
I already clearly explained where the growth will come from. And we are only talking 25% growth compared to a 10 year old game.
It's actually the complete opposite I am being logical and you're trying to insult, make untrue correlations & connections about what I am saying, posting false numbers for the & of growth needed, etc etc.
I have not based Blizzards popularity based on WoW, I referred to that as part of their popularity and only mentioned that briefly in 1 post! What did I have 1 sentence mentioning WoW. WOW keep posting false statements about what I've actually posted and tried to show with clear reasoning.
"How does CoD not count?!?! You said as part of your earlier argument: "No sequel in recent memory has seen sales growth of 40-50% (which is what we are currently projecting at a hair under 14 million)."
Which is not true. Maybe you want to now requote yourself and add all the technicalities to what you mean? "
You explained so yourself below....
"You can apply the same thing to CoD2 compared to CoD4. And CoD2 was a true AAA game. "
Pretty obvious to me you're just being contrary with me because I made an error in calculation. It doesn't change the point. YOU BROUGHT UP COD, not me. Awaiting your downbids.
Lineage has sold 14 million copies word wide in the same timeframe. (check wiki for all time PC games sales).
And you unwittingly proved my point. You can't have it both ways Joe, either Starcraft was popular when it came out, or it reached it potential recently? Since you are saying they now have TV shows and such (which is fairly recent development) compared to when Starcraft first came out (and I disagree it was initially panned), wouldn't you think that its reached is apex?
Sorry, but Starcraft is as much a niche title as Super Smash Bros. The "Joe Gamer" doesn't give a crap about these titles, and this generation, as the Wii has shown is ALL ABOUT JOE GAMER.
Hardcore has peaked.
I think you have a minor point about Blizzard being even larger today, but don't believe that any WoW converts that haven't already purchased SC1 will be interested in SC2.
So again, I ask, where's this magical growth for Starcraft coming from? I feel it will eventually sell a million more than Starscraft1, but 14 million is nothing more than exuberant without any sort of factual basis.
It's so funny, I try to use logic to explain my positions, and all I ever get in return is, MAGIC BEANS from many responders.
I mean really, you've resorted to quoting Blizzard's popularity because of WoW as a basis for increased sales like Wow players have been living under a rock for 10 years. (wait a second...).
In short I will probably be downbid for trying to explain why NOT 4 million in growth, while you will be unharmed for NOT explaining 4 million sales in growth. Such is life towing TSE line.
@zeromous, Not true. Although the marketbase has increased each year SC1 has been on sale. Most of its sales took place early in its lifetime. As the marketbase increased SC1 sales did not benefit to a large degree from the very recent surge in the videogame industry. As of 2005, StarCraft and Brood War combined had already shipped over nine million copies.
You may think RTS is niche but it is not. Tons of RTS games come out all the time & garner respectable sales. More importantly, Blizzard games go beyond their genres. Blizzard games step beyond "niche". MMORPGs were niche in comparison to before what WoW accomplished. That is the nature of Blizzard. Blizzard games don't need a precedent to reach a high sales figure. Why don't you provide info on all the genres that have not broken 10 million in sales... And SC1 will likely break 10 million in sales as it's almost there already & still being sold widely.
Where is sub 32% growth (more accurately 25%) going to come from over a 10 year old game? Worldwide is where it will come from. It will come from the much larger gaming userbase that there is in 2008-2009 compared to what it was in 1998-2003, which is pretty accurately when the far majority of SC1's 9.5+ million sales took place. Could actually be even 1998-2002 or 2001.
It will also come from the fact that SC1 had little fanfare during its years in development and at its release compared to what SC2 has going for it. SC1 was actually chastised when it was first reported on by gaming journalists. Same deal with Blizzard. They were popular back then but nowhere near as popular as they are today.
Why are you bringing Lineage into this discussion? What I've read shows that SC1 has obliterated Lineage in sales WW & Lineage never reached over 3.35 million subscribers where that includes WW even though most were in Korea. And how is Lineage ancient? It came out the same year as SC1. How is it more popular? It's sales are worse, I don't believe it has a TV show, and it's from a different genre.
How does CoD not count?!?! You said as part of your earlier argument: "No sequel in recent memory has seen sales growth of 40-50% (which is what we are currently projecting at a hair under 14 million)."
Which is not true. Maybe you want to now requote yourself and add all the technicalities to what you mean?
Game sales in general for the best titles have been going up compared to what they used to be. And you expect SC2 to see much less growth than all the other top titles of the current era. That's backwards.
Sorry for not breaking out the calculator...I write in haste. ~33% growth would be correct.
You are comparing apples to oranges though. The marketbase has increased each year the game has been on sale. Therefore its potential is about the same (plus a little growth, definately unequal to the total growth over a decade). But here we are saying "a little growth" is 23-33% on a NICHE game.
This isn't mario we're talking about. This is a niche game, that IF you were into RTS you will likely be interested in Starcraft 2. How many RTS do you see breaking 10 million? None.
Why not talk more about how Starcraft is the best selling RTS of all time, but still couldn't top an ancient game like Lineage which has been building its user base for just as long. Where's all this growth coming from for Starcraft 2? South Korea? Doesn't everyone already play that over there? Competition is stiffer than it has ever been, which well, negates growth.
Also Call of Duty does not count because it was an outsourced "sequel". Call of Duty 1&2 did not perform similarly. Call of Duty 3 ..did it sell more than Call of Duty 2 on PC?
I'm not saying there will be no growth, I'm saying an additional 3 million+ sales in today's competition is a poor prediction based on facts available.
@sagexsdx, I don't think quality is really a worry here because of the fact that Blizzard has plenty of capital to do things with and is a studio not only known for quality, but not putting out their games until they are totally ready.
well that's assuming the sequels are really that much greater. cod4 was a huge jump in quality from 3 (most definitely since cod3 < cod2). not _all_ sequels sell more than the previous game. lumines for psp sold close to a mil according to vgchartz. lumines ii sold 90k.
now, this is just an example of course. but lifetime sales really depends on the quality of the game. the people behind sc2 arent the same people who did sc1. the original team for the most part has gone elsewhere. anyway i think we'll just have to see when there's a demo or something.
1
I tried checking PC sales on Wiki I don't see a listing, care to provide a link? I got my numbers from the Wiki page for Lineage.
What are you talking about I can't have it both ways?! You're saying SC1 can't be popular when it first released and at the present time? When in fact that CAN BE true, just at different levels. Besides, I was talking about SC1 the game in popularity for when it first came out & SC the FRANCHISE for popularity today. People are salivating for the release of a new game in the FRANCHISE.
I'm not saying TV shows are a recent development, they've been around at least since 2003. TV shows are as much popularity for the FRANCHISE as they are for the original game.
You disagree SC1 was initially panned? Go research it then and you will find out when they showed the game to the press at E3 it was ridiculed.
So now SSBB is a niche title? Yet it's predicted to sell more than SC2, 16 million (and more realistically will likely sell near 10 million). You're generalizing sales of core games on Wii to PC, saying that the same audience that is so into the Wii makes up the people who will or will not decide to play SC2. That's wrong. The Wii & PC are to different beasts. Those interested in SC2 are core gamers, not the casual audience the Wii is marketed to.
Your subtle insults are not attractive either.
I'm not saying WoW converts are going to turn to SC2 in mass. Blizzard has defined itself as a quality developer more and more over the years. It's their reputation & IPs they have built up. It's NOT that WoW players are going to be interested in SC2.
I already clearly explained where the growth will come from. And we are only talking 25% growth compared to a 10 year old game.
It's actually the complete opposite I am being logical and you're trying to insult, make untrue correlations & connections about what I am saying, posting false numbers for the & of growth needed, etc etc.
I have not based Blizzards popularity based on WoW, I referred to that as part of their popularity and only mentioned that briefly in 1 post! What did I have 1 sentence mentioning WoW. WOW keep posting false statements about what I've actually posted and tried to show with clear reasoning.