I think this stock is still highly overvalued. (oh no he di'nt!) 14 million is the absolute ceiling for this title and we're still way to close to the edge of complete irrationality.
I've read some of the debates in this thread and think piracy and comparisons to other properties is a little misleading. This is after all the trifecta games have been salivating for: (Blizzard+Starcraft+RTS).
Something potentially this sweet only comes along once a year or so but it just doesn't have the platform market-share or broad appeal required to reach a level that most games will never see (the 14-30 million club!)
From wiki: * Adventure – Myst (6 million)[145] * Computer role-playing game – Diablo II (4 million)[148] * First-person shooter – Half-Life (8 million)[144] * Third-person shooter - Mafia: The City of Lost Heaven (2 million)[165] * Massively multiplayer online role-playing game – Lineage 2 (14 million customers)[138] * Real-time strategy – StarCraft (9.5 million)[143] * Simulation – The Sims (16 million shipped,[136] 29 million including expansions)[137]
No doubt Starcraft2 is going to be the second coming of RTS and I will devastate any one of you my uber micro any old time, but this is a great short if you can afford it. I think this should be in the 1000-1200 DKP range.
Very nice and logical comment. I agree with you 100%. I also believe in Blizzard's capabilities, since they have so many AAA game under their belt. My friend has been playing Blizzard game since the old days (Command & Conquer, PC, EGA era, IIRC).
Gaara42, I have no stake in this stock because I don't think I have a good idea of where it will end up. But I think you are making a mistake if you are dismissing Starcraft in South Korea because of piracy and the rise of game cafes AKA PC-bangs.
First off piracy was easy way back when Starcraft first launched in 1998 as it is now. Little has changed in the arms race between the code makers and the code breakers. To say Starcraft II won't sell because of piracy doesn't make sense to me. The first Starcraft sold fine in spite of rampant piracy.
In fact the first Starcraft is really the game that broke open the South Korean software market. Before Starcraft virtually 100% of game software there was pirated. Part of the reason why piracy does not really affect Starcraft is because of the online multiplayer portion of the game. To play online competitively you must have a legitimate copy of the game. Every computer in every PC-bang that runs Starcraft must have it's own licensed copy of Starcraft.
That's the big draw of the game especially in the South Korean market where to this day, 4.5 million prime time viewers still tune in to watch matches broadcast daily by two different TV networks dedicated to gaming.
You also say that the rise in game cafes will hinder Starcraft 2 sales. But I think that the rise in game cafes acutally provides an immediate base of customers that the original Starcraft never had. The day Starcraft II is launched in South Korea, you can bet that every single PC-bang will have their copies loaded up and ready. The PC-bang that does not purchase enough copies of Starcraft II is just committing financial suicide.
Additionally growth in PC-bangs expose gaming to many people who maybe would have never have picked up a mouse in the first place. I think overall PC-bangs are a net positive to sales rather than a negative.
Honestly though I don't know how much this game will sell, but I doubt that things like piracy, game cafes, or competition will really change the numbers for this game. I believe everything once again rides on whether Blizzard can keep the decade long hot streak going and develop another AAA quality game.
I have several things to add to your reply (for the moment, until I get more time to make a more detailed response), you state that "Plus you're not considering the emerging younger audience that will more than fill in any people who may be 'too old' now.", yet I state in my post "t is possible that those younger generations who have heard great things about the first game, will be interested in this game."
Also, not sure why you don't believe in comparing the sales of different industries, in terms of mega hits. The movie industry has not had a title that has reached 'Titanic' level and it looks likely that they may not again for a long time. Same with music and I take the analogy to games. World of Warcraft became so large because of the social aspect, but under it the market for MMOs is very fragmented, even if the space is filled with one 'core' audience.
I will consider your other points and see whether I agree or disagree with them, as listed: ( - ) = disagree ( + )= agree ( * )= agree on some aspect, disagree on another 1. ( - ) Starcraft hasn't been diluted as a series 2. ( - ) PC market not fragmented 3. ( - ) No comparing to Thriller 4. ( - ) No comparing to the Sims 5. ( + ) New younger audience will take place of old players 6. ( * ) PC market is relatively same now compared to consoles as it was then 7. ( - ) Mentioned Game Cafes and Piracy comparison (piracy and Game Cafes are two very different beast) 8. ( + ) System Requirements not to high 9. ( + ) Enemy Territory, Crysis, and Unreal Tournament III more spec intensive
This is a general breakdown, I will analyze them further at a later date when I get time.
@Gaara42, Sure many games do not sell as many copies as their former titles. But you're ignoring the fact that many newer games sell just as well as those older titles, they're just different titles. Not to mention many of the games you talk about as selling best years ago, are games that have been around for 25 years. Starcraft isn't an old title in comparison and it hasnt' had sequel after sequel diluting the series, like the games you talk about have. This is the first sequel to SC, it hasn't been oversaturated.
You talk about fragmentation of the market, but that has happened mostly in the console space, not PC gaming. And that has to do with the type of audiences, PC gaming has a more core gaming audience.
I don't believe in comparing Michaeal Jacksons Thriller, because that is a completely different entertainment, despite your analogy. And I don't believe in comparing Starcraft 2 to The Sims. As I mentioned earlier, with your comparison of very old franchises (Mario); The Sims was oversaturated while Starcraft is the furthest thing from oversaturation.
Then there is the case that The Sims is a casual title, people had their fill with the first release and expansions, and maybe even spin off Sim titles. Which is the total opposite of Starcraft with its single title and different audience. People have wanted a sequel for years, are core gamers, and are willing to support the franchise. The Sims & Starcraft could not be more different!
The argument about older players having less time to play Starcraft 2 is a bit mute IMO. Starcraft is not a game that requires tons of time, the first title was of average length and could be played in bite sized junks due to the level layout. Blizzard has the talent and expertise to continue that. Plus you're not considering the emerging younger audience that will more than fill in any people who may be 'too old' now.
Consoles haven't become that much more popular compared to PC than they were at the time of Starcrafts release with the huge expansion of the console market at that time and the most popular titles almost all console exclusive.
Your arguments seem to be general arguments, not anything inherently tied to Starcraft.
I did not ignore your comment about Game Cafes, before my last post about this I read that entire article you posted regarding gaming in Korea as well as all the posts you had links for. I alluded to the state of gaming in Korea with these quotes: ----- "You state that SC2 won't get good sales in Korea because piracy is too prevalent there, yet SC1 itself sold 1 million copies between Jan 15 2006-May 21 2007 in Korea. (1 million in Korea in the past year, for a 10 year old title which is much easier to pirate!).
True piracy is a problem in Korea but that doesn't change the fact that 4.5 million people there have purchased a copy of SC1, which is easier to pirate than SC2 will be. And what if Blizzard adapts the new norm in Korea with a free game or very cheap game that is supported by microtransactions, thereby eschewing many people's reason to piracy as other successful recent games have done in Korea..." -----
Not directly talking about game cafes, but I still showed that Starcraft has sold very well in the past year in Korea despite the effect of game cafes & piracy, not to mention it sold 1 million in Korea almost 10 years after its release.
Starcraft 2 is not a game that will require great system spec requirements. It's graphics are as much of a step above Warcraft 3 which released in 2003, as Starcraft 1 was over Warcraft 2. Blizzard obviously knows what they're doing in that regard and they've already showed the same spec progression from their past which worked out perfectly.
Enemy Territory, Crysis, and Unreal Tournament III are all much much more spec intensive than Starcraft 2. I wouldn't compare any of those games situation with Starcraft 2. One need only look at the differences in graphics between those games and Starcraft 2. Not to mention Crysis is notorious for being the spec pusher of this era.
@Gaara42, I don't have time to read your post right now Gaara, but I'm writing to let you know I did not downbid it. I'll read it tomorrow and then probably upbid it for you unless I completely disagree then I won't upbid or downbid.
I think you ignored much of my previous post. Many of these pioneering games sold spectacularly back then because there was not much competition and the market was less fragmented. Look at the Mario games, they sold better than any PS2 game on systems that had a smaller install base than the PS2, increased install base does not always correlate with higher sales. Micheal Jackson's Thriller sold over 104 million copies, something that will probably never be repeated. Why? Even though the number of people who can buy CDs physically or digitally has increased, it is unlikely with the increased fragmentation of the market, more competition and the increased focus on niche markets, that such a moment of collective agreement will come again. The same with the video game industry, many of those games were supported by a lack of competition and the fact that few games after them then were able to emulate their style or better it.
Furthermore, look at the Sims. The first game broke records, having sold much better than Starcraft and having the regular release of expansion packs to keep interest in it alive. The Sims 2 sold significantly less than the Sims. While it is true that the Sims did not reach national obsession level in America (the country is much to large and fragmented for that to happen), it was very popular and I know people who still play it from time to time. I doubt that Starcraft II will experience the same sort of drop, since it is supported more by hardcore players that stick with a series, but I believe that it will experience diminishing returns, in that while it has garnered a significant reputation, like Unreal Tournament III, it won't necessarily correlate to sales.
I also believe that many of the people who grew up on Starcraft will have aged to a point that they might not have time to invest in games as much as they would like. Due to that they don't want to take the risk of messing with their lives by getting hooked on Starcraft II. It is possible that those younger generations who have heard great things about the first game, will be interested in this game. But it is likely that they will be more interested in consoles (as they have become more popular as of late); interested in more cooperative games; or likely to try MMOs, other genres (FPS, RPG, Sports) or other games in the RTS genre, as there are so many great series to choose from now (as I listed in this post, though there are certainly more).
Also, you ignored my assertion about Game Cafes, which have become more popular. I believe that this will take a significant chunk of sales out of the game, as I stated before. I will not repeat myself again here (you can read this post for more detail analysis).
There is also the point that Starcraft had very low spec requirements, which allowed it to be easily run on people's computers, even if they were old. This greatly helped sales and the new engine and effects on Starcraft II, while nice, require better hardware, something that I think will be detrimental to sales if the engine is not highly scalable (we have seen with sales of Enemy Territory, Crysis and Unreal Tournament III that high spec games probably won't sell that well due to hardware issues).
There are other reasons why I believe that Starcraft won't sell as much as the current price predicts, but I will look into them (and the assertions made here) more in order to see whether they are viable or not. As of now, 700-900DKP is still my target range for this game.
I haven't been following the comments on this stock, but I'll add to the discussion & reply to Gaara's posts. Gaara you said that there is more competition now in the RTS genre. However, the most popular and highly rated RTS games are the ones from Starcraft's era. A glance through Wikipedia entry on RTS games showcases the noteworthy games.
You state that SC2 won't get good sales in Korea because piracy is too prevalent there, yet SC1 itself sold 1 million copies between Jan 15 2006-May 21 2007 in Korea. (1 million in Korea in the past year, for a 10 year old title which is much easier to pirate!).
True piracy is a problem in Korea but that doesn't change the fact that 4.5 million people there have purchased a copy of SC1, which is easier to pirate than SC2 will be. And what if Blizzard adapts the new norm in Korea with a free game or very cheap game that is supported by microtransactions, thereby eschewing many people's reason to piracy as other successful recent games have done in Korea...
Another point is that SC1 came on the scene when there were less PC gamers and it didn't have a reputation, thus its first year sales were good but not spectacular. SC2 has literally the best PC game reputation to date. SC1 benefited most from longtail sales. SC2 will benefit with a bang right at release and also have a longtail, perhaps even a longer tail than SC1 now with new means of distribution, particularly online distribution.
SC1 has sold at least over 9.5 million & likely over 10 million. And its still being sold at most retailers. SC2 will hit at least 10 million IMO.
@Gaara42, When the game comes out and doesn't sell the way that people are expecting it to, you'll have the last laugh. But until then, dissenting opinions are often times met with downbids, especially those that espouse a short position on a generally highly regarded stock.
I agree, for such a highly traded stock, I am surprised no one has refuted by assertions for why this stock is very much overvalued (these comments were made here: Comment 1, Comment 2 and Comment 3). Bleezy attempted to disprove one of my comments but when I responded with a list of games and series that are now respected in the RTS genre and competition for this game, there was no reply, only several downbids.
People do not want to dispel the idea that such a revered franchise does not always sell 10 million+ copies no matter the hype (except for Pokemon but that is because it has merchandise, TV series and an industry behind it keeping the kids coming back for more), especially when many new series have cropped up since its inception in that particular genre. Few hear would think that Mario can still reach the highs of the NES era, he will most likely never again sell 17 million + that several of his SNES and NES era games did. It is because of this and other reasons mentioned in my other comments, that I believe that this game will sell between 7 million to 9 million copies or 700-900DKP, though as more information is assimilated that might be lowered or raised.
3
I've read some of the debates in this thread and think piracy and comparisons to other properties is a little misleading. This is after all the trifecta games have been salivating for: (Blizzard+Starcraft+RTS).
Something potentially this sweet only comes along once a year or so but it just doesn't have the platform market-share or broad appeal required to reach a level that most games will never see (the 14-30 million club!)
From wiki:
* Adventure – Myst (6 million)[145]
* Computer role-playing game – Diablo II (4 million)[148]
* First-person shooter – Half-Life (8 million)[144]
* Third-person shooter - Mafia: The City of Lost Heaven (2 million)[165]
* Massively multiplayer online role-playing game – Lineage 2 (14 million customers)[138]
* Real-time strategy – StarCraft (9.5 million)[143]
* Simulation – The Sims (16 million shipped,[136] 29 million including expansions)[137]
No doubt Starcraft2 is going to be the second coming of RTS and I will devastate any one of you my uber micro any old time, but this is a great short if you can afford it. I think this should be in the 1000-1200 DKP range.