@alesul, I like the method you're using; do you have anything else that you've done in the past this way? Or could you work up some other futures that we have?
Also, I'm assuming you're taking the 115k difference between the leaderboards and times it by 7?
See thats what I took away from it as well, they took November's NPD data and stated quite clearly they thought that CoD4 sales would hold steady. That to me means they assumed it would sell the same in Dec as it did in Nov, they aren't analyzing sales data they are analyzing the Economy and specific Industries as a whole and making statements about specific company stocks based on very general knowledge of those industries and using general retail knowledge.
They have done the same thing in the past from what I've found and their predictions are very hit and miss, depending on the industry and the time period.
There was an increase of 62% of the number of user in the leaderboards during the december period. From 220k US players at the end of november to 355k, according to data from mygamercard.net
I've been checking this numbers for the last three months and getting numbers close to the actual sales when multiplying the numbers of players in the leaderboard by 7 ~ 7.2.
@pilias_simber, I'm not sure what you mean by "share the data"; if you read the post on neogaf, they say their predictions come from using NOV NPD and their own internal research methods. Since I don't know what their research methods are, I can't "share the data".
Maybe I'm not reading the posts right, but what I took away from this is that: Bear Stearns, through their internal research, has determined that the DEC NPD sales number for COD4 will be essentially the same as the NOV NPD sales number.
@pilias_simber, The data that it's based on is stated in the article, not the summary. It's not based on assumptions, it's based on past performance and BS's own internal research.
Weeks 3-8 generally don't happen to games during the busiest shopping month of the year, and generally don't take place when a game is being considered by most major outlets to be a contender for Game of the Year.
So it's not based on data at all, it's just an assumption they made when looking at the stocks for the parent company.
I don't know why they would assume that weeks 3-8 would be the same as week's 1 and 2 for a game, usually you see a 50% drop off from week 1 to 2 and another 25-50% drop off in the next 4 weeks from week 2. I think we're being generous projecting CoD4 sales at half of what they were when it launched.
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I like the method you're using; do you have anything else that you've done in the past this way? Or could you work up some other futures that we have?
Also, I'm assuming you're taking the 115k difference between the leaderboards and times it by 7?