My main question is whether they are looking at shipped data or sold data, world data or US data, and where they collected their data from to make the report.
@Just_Ben, "Flat", in this circumstance, I'm taking to mean "essentially unchanged". That could mean a few percentage points higher or lower, is the meaning I'm taking.
@pilias_simber this link is where it's originally from, but you need to be a member of the site to see it, and the free access is limited to articles posted more than 24 hours ago. This was posted this morning (midwest time), so I won't be able to verify the contents of the post until tomorrow morning. Although, as I said in the Industry News section, sonycowboy has made well thought out, factually based posts in the past. There's a similar discussion happening in Industry News, as well.
@Just_Ben, I don't think you can use Halo numbers as "normal" sales numbers. Halo is a monster that has a set of rules all it's own. COD4 didn't have the kind of hype that Halo 3 did, or nearly the rabid, pre-installed fan base (who would be buying on release date). I think COD4 is a game that could gain momentum, especially as more and more favorable reviews came in, and most especially with the Christmas sales included. Another thing I think COD4 has going for it is that it came out after everyone had already bought Halo 3, and to a lesser degree BioShock, so people were looking for a different game for Christmas presents. I certainly don't think that a million is out of the question, and just because your cryptic "source" says that it's going to do around 600k (I think that's what you posted before) doesn't mean it's going to. Since you can't tell us who/what/anything about your "source", we have to treat it as a rumor, until proved otherwise.
Which would be against normal sales pattern. Look at halo 3.1 Million first month (2 Weeks), 400 k next month. If COD sells more than 1 Million copies in december, I eat a head! Even the current prediction seems high and of course, my source says something else (well, I hope i can relay on it).
@sonycowboy, Well, if we're that far off, it would fit with last month's prediction we were way off on. So we could be constantly predicted to undervalue COD4 futures. Maybe we could have a margin of error future on COD4 futures? ; )
That's my take. They're predicting essentially ~the same sales volume.
Be warned, that as bad as we can be at predicting individual titles, analysts can be as well. However, they do have some resources and the descrepancy is enough to give pause.
In the end, it's just one more data point for everyone to consider.
So how're you interpreting this? I'm interpreting it as Bear Stearns is predicting statistically unchanged numbers from November, for Call of Duty 4 and Guitar Hero 3.
Bear Sterns released an industry note today that forecasts 1.4M copies for the 360 version for December NPD. Far above it's current pricing.
"· Industry sales +35%. December NPD results will be released after the close on Thursday, 1/17. We expect industry software sales to rise 35% y/y, primarily driven by sales of top Nov titles: Guitar Hero 3, Call of Duty 4, ...
· ATVI +85%. Weekly channel checks showed limited availability of GH3 - we assume flat CoD4 and GH3 along with a sequential rise in GH2; Tony Hawk should rise m/m but will likely fall below last year in part due to new competition from ERTS’ Skate.
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My main question is whether they are looking at shipped data or sold data, world data or US data, and where they collected their data from to make the report.