@apujanata, One thing I missed : "Now keep in mind, these are only players on Xbox 360 (who have also connected to Xbox Live at least once)," he explained. "So there are more than this playing Call of Duty 4, we just can't track them."
If we figure that there are about 10% of COD4 X360 who NEVER go online (I believe 10% is quite a small figure, the actual figure could be even bigger (20%) or smaller (5%)), then GLS of COD4 X360 should be 11 Million, which is still quite far from current 8.7 Million price (went up since I go long in this stock since my previous post). I didn't drove it up higher since I need to have some margin to put short order for Wii Dec 08. Once Dec 08 came, if the price is still significantly below 1 Million, I will invest more.
Anybody think I am making a mistake in my analysis ? I am asking this since I am surprised that there are 4 people who upbid this article before me, and yet the price barely moved (only +3%)
Don't forget the amount of people who have brought this game second hand, rented it, or borrowed it off friends. I'm certain that it's a very high number, although of course you have to factor in the amount of people who brought it and have not gone online. It's a difficult one, and one that I won't be dabling in, but yes if anything it is undervalued.
The report also mentions that 1.5 million copies of the mappack have been sold and CoD4 is one of only 9 or less games to sell 10 million copies since 2000 (I think he is excluding portable games as Nintendo DS already has five or six 10 million sellers and also bundled games).
I guess the other possible individual games to sell more than 10 million copies are:
GTA III GTA: VC GTA: SA Sims 2 The Sims GT3 World of Warcraft Wii Play
Though Gears of War 2 is a very different game, I'm betting it will definitely hamper CoD4 sales when it releases in November. Most everyone will have bought CoD4 by then and people will want to play the new hotness. (That's just how it is with shooters, people migrate to the latest and greatest.)
@Heloise10, Does not matter. You fail to mention that the sales are across all platforms. You also fail to mention that Activision has been reported as saying that the title has been the "most successful" on the Xbox 360 - though not reporting any breakdown of the 10 million.
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One thing I missed :
"Now keep in mind, these are only players on Xbox 360 (who have also connected to Xbox Live at least once)," he explained. "So there are more than this playing Call of Duty 4, we just can't track them."
If we figure that there are about 10% of COD4 X360 who NEVER go online (I believe 10% is quite a small figure, the actual figure could be even bigger (20%) or smaller (5%)), then GLS of COD4 X360 should be 11 Million, which is still quite far from current 8.7 Million price (went up since I go long in this stock since my previous post). I didn't drove it up higher since I need to have some margin to put short order for Wii Dec 08. Once Dec 08 came, if the price is still significantly below 1 Million, I will invest more.
Anybody think I am making a mistake in my analysis ? I am asking this since I am surprised that there are 4 people who upbid this article before me, and yet the price barely moved (only +3%)