@MasterTrader, I would say that CoD4 targets the same audience as the GRAW series, but this is just my opinion. With GRAW 2 predicted to sell 1.43 million copies before its big drop on 8/23, I just don't see this game selling more than triple that, no matter how good it looks and plays.
@DiesNex, I am hearing CoD4 will be a surprise hit this holiday (more so than usually expected out of a CoD game). I am hearing this game is shaping up to be a better FPS than Halo 3. Of course, the brand isn't the same as Halo on Xbox 360, but I think we can expect greater than CoD 3 sales.
@Joe80, I sorry if my previous comment came off as an attack. I wasn't aiming to dispute you. On the contrary, I was looking to add more to your end of the conversation. If Halo 3 wasn't coming out this year then I would be buying this stock like crazy. I'm just saying that since there are multiple FPSs coming out this holiday season, that a range of 3.5 to 4.5 million DKP isn't unreasonable, but that I personally wouldn't expect the attach rate to be more than 15%.
@DiesNex, Why is America's Army all of a sudden a game to be reckoned with? Past America's Army games got reviews of 8.4 and 7.6 from Gamespot and did quite worse when considering all ratings, as gamerankings shows:
You're saying you can't see CoD4 sell more than 4.5 million, I agree, the stock is at 355 and was at 371 when I last posted. I have been posting to say that the stock should remain where it is/was. I have not said it should be going over 4 million nor that it should be going up. I urge people to read my last 2 comments on this games page for factual evidence regarding why CoD4 can sell 3.5-4 million.
@Joe80, Call of Duty 2 was a launch title and a great one at that. I'm not saying that CoD4 isn't going to be great, but the consumer has a lot more choices now if they're looking for a great FPS on 360. With Halo 3 and America's Army: True Soldiers coming out only 41 days before this game I don't see it selling more than 4.5 million copies.
If the 360 sells 30 million total within 2 years, CoD4 only needs a 13% attachment ratio in order to sell 3.9 million copies. You had said 4+ million and the stock is not at 4 million, it's at 3.71 million. So the attachment ratio right now would only have to be 12.5%. That means only 1 in 8 360 owners would need to buy the game within the next 2 years. If we take CoD 2's sales and even put them up against 10,000,000 360's sold, CoD 2's attachment ratio is over 20%. To think CoD2 can have an attachment ratio of 20% but CoD4 can't even reach 12.5% is a little off IMO.
Wish there was an edit button. My last point is, do you see the irrational exuberance of this stock? There have been no sell-offs since the IPO. It's straight up from bottom. This stock is due for a drop nonetheless.
I'm shorting this stock and everyone else should be too! But that's just my opinion.
Amidst heavy competition. When has heavy competition ever increased sales?
Let's not forget, the 360 will be lucky to have 14-15 million boxen in the homes of consumers after this Christmas and maybe 25 million by the time CoD4 is long and forgotten. (these are obviously just estimates)
There's just no way i can see CoD4 selling 4 million lifetime. 1 in 6 360 owners over the next 1-2 years will have to pick it up and that's just not going to happen.
I have to disagree. CoD2 on 360 has sold over 2 million and it had multiplayer issues on 360. CoD4 is one of the best looking games on any platform & Infinity Ward has had at least 2 years to make it, being able to fully utilize the 360 this time. They've also moved away from the WWII setting to a more popular modern setting. They're benefiting from a much larger 360 installed base and the game is releasing earlier so that it can take full advantage of the holiday shopping season.
I don't care how good it looks or if Infinity Ward is behind this iteration, the only FPS with legs to do 4 million+ is Halo. CoD4 is an easy short, especially with this inflated stock price on the 360.
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I would say that CoD4 targets the same audience as the GRAW series, but this is just my opinion. With GRAW 2 predicted to sell 1.43 million copies before its big drop on 8/23, I just don't see this game selling more than triple that, no matter how good it looks and plays.