@Gaara42, To support your argument, it's also hard to get NPD data (or any data) from the future. Until we can look back from a greater distance, or get some kind of official word, all we have are predictions.
How, exactly, are we supposed to supply you data for this game, when the only three likely sources, NPD, European tracking companies and Rockstar, won't give us complete data on how this is selling. NPD is also an estimate, it is not fact, so they could be under tracking for all we know. Tracking companies in Europe don't release the numbers behind positions often, they surely won't for Manhunt if it only sells 50k there. This is prediction market, we are making estimates based off of given data and how we feel the game did in absence of other data.
From that, certain people think the game sold more than you do. You have data for one month in one country showing sales around 1/3 of what you are predicting this game to sell. I believe that that this game will sell more than x3 what it sold in one country in one month. Also, keep in mind that it was out in October for only a few days (released 29 October 2007), that hardly counts as being out for the entire month, in fact, it was only about 2 days. To then sell 1/3 of total lifetime sales in 2 days seems unreasonable to me (unless your part of the Halo series).
It is due to all of these factors that I believe that this game will sell more than 13DKP projected here and more than 10DKP or less you suggest.
Ahh. Maybe something to consider. According to NPD it sold less than 30 thousand in October. NPD data was leaked for that month. Here.
All you say it sold more, but no one has a good reason for it.
All we know is that October+November US was less than 5DKP according to NPD. Why VGC is over tracking on that game can easily explained. Sorry can someone bring in any data that would suggest more than 10DKP? And I mean data. And yes it may sell something in the UK, but UK is way smaller than the US. The estimations here are interesting way to high.
i agree i think this is extremely underpriced, the england and ireland ban will be lifted eventually, im fairly sure on that. a game with this much controversy surrounding it is not only going to sell 140k copies worldwide, the original manhunt thrived off the controversy, it was the main reason people brought it and it sold quite alot more than 250k i believe, so it could go higher this time.
@vGInfidel,Take about 4dkp (november future) away from those figures and you will get roughly how much it has sold + how much it has sold anyware else. If the england + ireland ban is lifted i could see it selling another 10dkp. Thats not all you all you have to add its full lifetime sales which could lead it to sell 25dkp. I find this very underpriced.
How big is big ? Is it based on # of shares ? Or based on # of total value ? If you can share the criteria, I would be able to judge when I should use market maker, when I should use open orders. :D
im fairly confident that this game will generate at least 50k sales in the UK due to the whole controversy over the banning despite it not being very good and VGC has it valued at 14dkp for america although i place little trust in their figures.
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To support your argument, it's also hard to get NPD data (or any data) from the future. Until we can look back from a greater distance, or get some kind of official word, all we have are predictions.