Kids won't buy this game, but parents who have become accustomed to the safety of buying a Mario game, the name is synonymous with quality and fun to many people, will purchase this game for their kids, especially if those same kids had a good time with any of the other many Mario Party games. A party game + DS + holiday season, I couldn't see how this game would not do well.
I only now realized what your point is. My bad. Well, I will only lose money if MP:DS did less than 180K in Nov, and I have a hard time believing that.
@apujanata, Part of the problem is what I mentioned before: just because it sold less than 370k doesn't mean it sold 369k. It could very well have sold 250k in two weeks, which totally blows your calculations out of the water. I'm not saying you're wrong, I just think you may be relying too much on the allure of "casual gamers". The main target for this game are kids (not necessarily casual gamers), and I just don't see that many kids buying it.
And I got a pretty big bet that it's going to be more than 350K. If it only sold 350K, I will lose some money. If it is only 300K or even 250K, I will lose big money. I can hardly wait for NPD data.
Why I am confident with my 370K ? The game was release on Nov 19, so Nov NPD only cover 2 weeks sales (as you mentioned), which give us weekly rate of 180K (rounded down). Since - Dec NPD is 5 weeks - weekly rates of games in Dec is usually double Nov - Nintendo games usually have better legs (especially the casual games) - games usually have lower rate a month after launch,
Considering above factors, I decide = 5 x 150K = 750K. With 350K price, I have margin of safety (MOS) of 50%, which made me dare to buy up to the max.
UK LTD sales for Brain Training is likely to be over 1.3-1.4 Million. It was in the top ten from it's launch in June 2006 till late October 2006, remained in top 20 for rest of the year, until it re-entered top ten for last 2 weeks of 2006 (data from Chart-Track). I know the title was awarded Platinum (300K unit) sales award by ELSPA in early 2007.
@apujanata, I think everyone is over-estimating the power of casual games on the DS. Just because NOV NPD for MPDS was less than 370K doesn't mean it was 369K, as you seem to be assuming.
The success of a game in Japan does not dictate the success of a game in NA and Europe. I would be careful talking about "legs", as well; its a buzzword people use too much, I think. In the absence of hype and sales, people fall back on the mythical "legs" argument, and a lot of times it's just not right.
Like you said, in a week we'll know who was wrong and who was right. I've got a pretty big bet that it's going to be less than 350k for December. That's my position.
@Mushashi, What is the LTD for Brain Age in UK alone ? 2 Mill ? 2.5 Mill ?
Based on your confimation, 3-4 is not just a potential, but it is a minimum. The potential is 5.5 - 6 million, as I mentioned before.
Current price is 3.5 Million, which means a minimum of 10% guaranteed profit, with potential for 60% to 75% profit, as optimistic prediction. The absolutely best case prediction will be 100% profit (for 7 Million GLS).
The 1 Million unit sales of Brain Age (Training) in the UK is for 2007 only, the title is well past 1 million in the UK alone, it has been selling well all year. Mario Party has potential to do at least 3-4 Million GLS I believe. It is close to 1.5 Million in Japan alone already, and 1+ Million for Europe and NA is easily feasible.
@feelmyring, The UK 2007 list have Brain Age at #2, with 1 Million sales (not sure whether it is 2007 sales only, or LTD #), even though Brain Age in US is not (AFAIK) yet 1 Million. Assuming that Europe will do at least as well as US is not unrealistic.
About total 5-6 million, you might think it is unrealistic, but I feel it realistic. Anyway, we only have to wait 1 more week before knowing which one is right / wrong.
Let's say I was wrong, and Dec 07 NPD only have Mario Party at 370K (it should be 740, but let's say only 370), then US already account for 740K for first 2 months. Let's say Europe figure is the same, also 740K (in the future, in the first 2 months since release). GLS for US should be 740K x 2 = 1.5 Million. GLS for Europe also 1.5 Million.
Total for Japan (2.5 - 3) + US + Europe (3 Million) give us a total of 5.5 - 6, even higher than my original estimate of 5 - 6 Million GLS WW.
As Just_Ben mentioned, NEVER underestimate the power of legs on casual titles. It has been proven in Japan, and it has also been proven in US (via Super Smach Brother Melee, the ultimate casual fighting game on GC).
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Kids won't buy this game, but parents who have become accustomed to the safety of buying a Mario game, the name is synonymous with quality and fun to many people, will purchase this game for their kids, especially if those same kids had a good time with any of the other many Mario Party games. A party game + DS + holiday season, I couldn't see how this game would not do well.