@Gaara42, Isn't the probability of a bundle related to how close to sony the creating company is? That's why I assumed only Ratchett & Uncharted are the big competitors in a year's time.
I think Ratchet and Clank (known series), a shooter (a FPS without the platforming elements), a Marvel: Ultimate Alliance game (multiplayer, somewhat of a brawler) or a racing game would get packed it. While it might be possible that this game gets bundled due to retailers doing a bundle, I don't think Sony will release a bundled version of this game like they did with Hotshots Golf or Motorstorm, those are much faster and easier to pick up and play and have multiplayer modes.
I seemed to have looked at the wrong sites when gathering information, I thought this was not getting a Japanese release. I would then tend to agree with your numbers, though 145-180DKP seems a little bit of a high range, unless Sony decides to bundle this game. With your numbers, 115DKP-145DKP seems a better range without a bundle, with a bundle then your range seems more realistic, though that also depends on what region they bundle the game in.
@Gaara42, very curious why you think this won't be bundled. Of the bundle-candidates I see this one as one of the most probable. I see it as only a matter of time.
100DKP is too low, IMO. In my worst case scenario : - first 3 month of Uncharted in US : 117 + 100 + 70 = 287K - first 3 month of Uncharted in EU : something between 200 - 400, so let's pick 200K - first 3 month of Uncharted in Japan : let's say it is 100K Total of first 3 months : 587K + 10% (for others) = 650K.
IF (a big if, which mean may not happen) there is NO lower priced edition in the future, then LTD could be 650K + 40% (for the additional sales after first 3 months) = 900K, or 90 DKP.
If we take optimistic view, then those 90 DKP will suddenly turn into 145 - 180 DKP, which is why I think your 100 DKP is too low.
The real question is why is the lifetime sales for this game still so high, it should be around 100DKP, especially since this is a PS3 game, so it won't have extremely long legs and unlike Motorstorm or Forza, its doubtful it will be bundled. The game isn't getting released in Japan (and if it was it wouldn't sell well). If someone has European charts showing how Uncharted did there (IGN says it was released on 7 December), it would allow for a better gauge, but the lifetime sales of this stock is still overvalued and should be at 100DKP.
Why is the Dec future for this game still so high ? Based on data from previous post : Uncharted did 117k in November (4 week), Says NPD. 186 says VGC. VGC overshoot Uncharted by 58%.
Actual weekly rate for November is 117 / 4 = 30K (rounded up). Rough Estimate for Dec : 5 weeks x 30K (assume that Dec weekly rate is the same as november, since Dec is holiday, and not higher since PS3 games are more front loaded) = 150K.
If we assume that Dec weekly rate is not 30K, say only 20K (since a lot of retailers feedback on Dec 07 mentioned that Uncharted is not moving), then you only have 100K sales in Dec 07.
At the current 184K, this future is already 20% higher than my most optimistic estimate.
@Joe80,Yes this is way underpriced.VGC have been under estimating things by an average of about 50%.
So its currently selling at about 45,000 (4.5dkp) a week x 1.5 = 67,500 (6.5dkp)a week.And sales are going to increase coming close to christmas so it could easily hit this future and could possible sell 20-25dkp.
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