@apujanata, I wouldn't go that low because of the fact that the Wii will have a higher installed base by the time of the Mario Kart Wii release than the DS had at the time of the Mario Kart DS release. I believe above 112,000 copies (11.2 DKP), but under a million.
@sagexsdx, Personally, I expected Mario Kart Wii to be at 85.2 DKP (852K sold first week). I didn't remember how I arrived at those #, but I think it is based on Mario Kart : Double Dash performance.
I didn't expect Mario Kart Wii to be only 112k (11.2 DKP) like Mario Kart DS, because at the time of Mario Kart DS Release, there are 2.6 Million DS base, while when Mario Kart Wii release, it will have around 8.8 Million Wii base (3.38 times DS base when Mario Kart DS release), which will translate to somewhere around 3.38 x 112 = 350K first week.
Other factors : - Wii is much more popular than DS at the time of Mario Kart release. - There are Wii Wheel included free in Mario Kart Wii, which should made it more popular (attractive) to Wii gamer. (I am one of them).
I am sorry that I somehow mis-read that 112K Mario Kart DS first week as 112 DKP, which meant 1.12 Million.
i think it will be VERY interesting if the NPD for Mario Kart Wii is below 112k. I personally think it might be more than 112k. But I don't know about the current number at 1+ mil.
@lstormy10, I hadn't analyze the Mario Kart DS first week sales, so I didn't factor that info into my estimate.
Considering that, and the fact that Mario Kart DS price is much lower (USD 30 or 35) compared to Mario Kart Wii (USD 50), it all point out to the big possibilities that Mario kart Wii will be significantly below 112K first week, which translate to <112K April NPD.
For the NPD April Future, I believe that the number is still too high as of now (123.98 DKP or ~1.24 million copies).
The fact that this game will have only about 1 week counted for NPD is a major reason why it should go down. If you look at SSBB, that game sold (going by official Nintendo numbers) 1.4 million copies in the U.S. in its first week. There is no way that I see Mario Kart getting as close to that first week number of SSBB as the current stock price suggests. Mario Kart Wii is not as hyped or as much of a immediate buy for as many Wii owners as a game like SSBB is.
In addition, casual Wii gamers are not as likely to get a game within its first week as more hardcore gamers are. More casual gamers will wait to get a game until either they actually hear about it (most likely through advertising) or it fits into their schedule/money situation/etc.
One last thing to mention is the first week sales for the most previous Mario Kart, Mario Kart DS - 112,000 (at the beginning of the holiday shopping season in the U.S.).
@apujanata, I had re-read my question and it seemed a bit wordy... lol. :)
Well, despite a few minor flaws - most notably the failure that is offline Battle mode - the sheer quality of this latest Mario Kart installment pretty much sits it right alongside the near-faultless SNES original. Despite initial fears, this is proper Mario Kart, and it's Mario Kart done right. It's fast, it's fun and still one of the best party games ever created.
@lstormy10, "wasn't very clear at all about meaning"
Not really. It is I who mis-read your post. Upon re-reading your post, it is quite clear what your original question is. It is I who mis-interpret or mis-read your question. Hope you are satisfied with my answer.
@lstormy10, I see. There are some period in which I didn't write down the weekly H/W #, and only have yearly H/W #, but I will try my best :
Mario Kart DS: 08 Dec 2005 : 4.2 Million DS H/W Mario Kart SC: 21 July 2001 : No precise data, but probably 25% of 2001 Yearly sales, or 1 Million GBA H/W Mario Kart DD: 07 Nov 2003 : 2.575 Million GC (give or take a few ten thousands).
Once you finished analyzing these data, don't forget to tell me your estimate of Mario Kart Wii US NPD April. I personally believe that the current # for April NPD, which only include 1 week sales period, are too high. But since we are talking about Mario Kart Wii, I am hesitant to short it too deeply, just in case I was wrong.
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I think you and I have the same expectation : much more than 11.2 DKP, but lower than 100 DKP (1 Million) for April NPD.
You can see my explanation in the previous comment here, in which I stated that I predicted 85.2 DKP (852K April NPD) for it.