@zeromous,We do count digital sales when available...ie GT for PSP at 1.8 million includes digital sales. Problem here is you'll never get that disclosure from Blizzard.
I'm sure you'd like to demonstrate some ambiguity, but there isn't
Subscribers are not sales. We track retail sales here, not even digital downloads (mainly because one can't), so by logical extension there is no counting of subscribers.
If anyone wants to keep this ambiguous it is because it is clearly in their interest to do so. KoC isn't going to comment because he might as well interfere in the market this way, and of course anyone else riding the wave (up and downs) is going make more DKP keeping this distinction as ambiguous as possible.
None of this changes the fact that it is highly mathematically unlikely no matter what happens in China for Lich King to reach 20 million DKP.
What is stopping this stock, is people with money not wanting to put their money up and Zukaus basically monopolizing the market.
This is the reason I stopped trading and check in to see how my much my neglected account makes every few months. Nice to see it has recovered after a depressed winter trading session on TSE.
I stopped shorting this stock after making my millions. It was simply too much work to keep rubbing against Zukaus and playing to long/short game on it.
That said, your for not helping to correct the price excuse is lame. You might as well collude with Zukaus with your knowledge, but that is your right to do so (to invest or not in this stock as the case may be).
The China factor isn't really 99% final nor is it as simple as that really.
I was shorting this stock *before* it became apparent that the Lich King release wouldn't be straight-forward. The reason? The method by which it is released and what counts as a "sale".
When the Burning Crusade was released in China, it was essentially rolled into the game like a patch. In China players do not purchase a game off a shelf, they play at Internet cafe's and buy playtime in minutes, almost like a pay-as-you-go mobile phone.
Essentially this means that existing Chinese WoW subscribers got the Burning Crusade for free. I do not think it appropriate for those to count as "sales". Conversely however, *new* subscribers to WoW could be counted and if they were then it can be said that Burning Crusade has racked up a fair few "sales" in the meantime.
Beyond the clarification on whether subscribers count, KultofCows hasn't had anything further to say on exactly what is and isn't counted. It's significant because China represents 40-50% of the active WoW subscriber base depending on who you ask. Zukaus didn't seem to want to engage me in a debate about it either, presumably because he's Zukaus and he's the capital to do what he likes anyway.
Now; my belief that the Lich King expansion may never see the light of day has certainly increased over the last 18 months but it remains just a possibility, not a given. I wasn't even suggesting it was the most likely outcome but it's certainly become more feasible as this has dragged on. In my opinion, this should have brought downward pressure on the stock if the exchange was calibrated correctly.
But even if it released, WoW growth has definitely slowed. The regulatory situation in China certainly hasn't helped matters and Activision themselves recognise the risk when the game is spending weeks even months on end offline. Realistically, how many *new* subscribers will start playing WoW in China if it comes out this year even? In turns of revenue potential, surely a new game like StarCraft II would be a much bigger priority then boosting WoW revenue in China by 10%-20% with this expansion. As much as China makes up 50% of the userbase, it's nothing like that in terms of the revenue.
So to sum up, I think there are a fair few questions even if it is released, and no release still remains a possibility even if it's not the most likely one.
@Alpha, AFAIK, the reason why this stock is 20 Million, is because Zukaus (and possibly other player) are going long on it (believe 20 Million is possible), and the player shorting them seriously (deftangel, zeromous) didnt' have enough DKP to drive down the price.
I also short this stock, but not in a major way, because : - China factor is not 100% final yet (it is 99% final, but not 100%) - putting aside some DKP for emergency use in the future market (can be either long or short).
This lends further evidence that implies Lich King sales can't possibly be this high. A very small portion of players ever reach levels to play the second expansion.
If Wrath of the Lich King isn't even released in China, and it appears there is significant obstacles in this happening, how is the stock forecasting nearly 20 million sales? This number seems ridiculous with no China market participation.
Activision's annual report released to the SEC yesterday mentions that Activision is worried about WoW becoming "obsolete," and that the regulatory issues in China could affect the entire company's bottom line. the fears about WoW are all in a section of the report labeled "Risk Factors," in which a company must disclose anything that could possibly go wrong with its financials in the future, just in case. In there, Activision worries about everything from credit card fraud to its ESRB ratings
Blizzard CEO Mike Morhaime said last night that only 30 percent of new World of Warcraft players continue to play after reaching level 10, with 70 percent dropping out. It would be interesting to see how that impacts sales of the expansion packs which are aimed at high level players at Lvl 60 and above. Some of them presumably buy the bundle versions of WoW but the vanilla one is also still selling strongly.
Subscribers do not equal sales. (i.e. more people will have bought / played WoW than there will be *current* subscribers
On the other hand, not all subscribers, current or otherwise will have bought the expansion packs
The 11.5m figure includes China, where the game currently can't sign new customers and has been offline for long periods in the last FY. Blizzard do not break down subscribers by region, so it's possible that any reduction in Chinese subscribers has been offset by growth elsewhere (i.e. WoW is still growing outside China). However, he did also mention that China was 50% of the userbase in the same call which is consistent with what it was before so perhaps that hasn't changed.
And yes, that's 50% of subscribers (and is reasonable to assume sales) that haven't "bought" Wrath of the Lich King yet. It's not coming out any time "soon" and the Chinese authorities are not going to start playing nice, just ask Google. How many players will have lost interest or gone on to StarCraft II by the time they get this sorted? (forgetting the still slim but not impossibile chance they might not)
Even though China is 50% of subs, it's in the mid-single digits range of WoW's revenue, so it's not the priority for Blizzard it might appear. That said, it's very much a priority for NetEase who essentially bet the farm on it.
You'll keep buying this up anyway but food for thought.
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