@Heloise10, I really wish there are a list of who is long or short significantly on a certain stock. Something like Just_ben's bot, but only for this stock.
@Heloise10, I agree with Heloise10, GoWIII is trading at over 5 million copies right now. Although this is a big brand, this forecast is substantially higher than the previous two iterations of the title, on a platform that had a much larger install base. I think this stock needs to go down to at least 300 DKP.
@apujanata, I would consider HSG5 sales horrible in NA. It will definitely not spur anyone to buy a bundle that contained it in NA. I also have doubts about it being a bundle in JA due to it selling well to those interested in it and then dropping off big time. And it was released a long time ago in JA, I'd consider it quite old, too old to be considered for a bundle.
@Joe80, "I don't know why you're only comparing first month of DMC 3 & 4 when we're talking about how they have done in lifetime sales in relation to how GOW 3 will do in lifetime sales." I don't have GLS data for DMC 3 & 4 (that doesn't come from VGC). If I have data for GLS, I would have discussed them with you. What I DO have is first month data of DMC 3 & 4, so I focused my discussion on it (I don't like discussing things with #).
Regarding bundle, I believe limited editon bundle could happen. I forgot about the GoW PSP bundle. I didn't realize that MGS 4 is also Mature (I didn't play MGS games). What exactly you meant by "I don't see why Hot Shots Golf 5 would be bundled considering its sales" ? How would you categorize HSG5 sales, and why it cause it to NOT bundled ?
Don't worry. I don't think you are the "reckless downbid type" player.
@vGInfidel, I did have significant short on this, but since I am almost running out of margin, I don't add to the short. In fact, I might wait until the price got higher, before I short them more (to get more profit).
Considering the game is almost a year away from release and as a big release for the PS3 it is likely to steadily raise based on hype. None of the wealthier players will go against it with a large short position because they know it is unlikely anyone else will do the same and so it will turn into a money pit for possibly over a year. Ive just taken a small short position so that i can track it more closely and will short if it goes above a certain price (which im still determining) and i have spare short margin available.
@Joe80, I still don't get why this stock keeps on climbing. GOW is an amazing franchise, but even the first one sold 3M and the second sold 2M ... is PS3 doing soooo well vs PS2 that it justifies a +75%? GOW games are amazing but they still are linear platform/fighting action gamers that have a narrower public than GTA or FPS ... at least IMO
@apujanata, FEB 5 is very close to JAN, JAN & FEB are generally not good months to release games on. It is often the case with publishers waiting until MAR to release big titles.
I don't know why you're only comparing first month of DMC 3 & 4 when we're talking about how they have done in lifetime sales in relation to how GOW 3 will do in lifetime sales. I was anyway. I never said anything about doubling sales or doubling PS3 installed base.
I think a limited edition bundle could happen. I don't see why Hot Shots Golf 5 would be bundled considering its sales. MGS 4 is getting a bundle and it is a Mature title. GoW for PSP is being bundled. So I would not strike out a bundle happening in some form.
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I really wish there are a list of who is long or short significantly on a certain stock. Something like Just_ben's bot, but only for this stock.