@Joe80, A little bit correction : DMC 4 is released on Feb 5 (US), so it is Feb vs March, not Jan vs March as you mentioned. In launch month, weekly rate of DMC3's first 5 weeks is roughly 15% lower than weekly rate of DMC4's first 4 weeks. This is normal since the 5th week is usually lower than average of Week 1 - Week 4, so there is no discernible difference between Feb and March.
Since I was comparing first month of DMC3 vs first month of DMC4, the fact that DMC3 has "second wind" from special edition is not relevant (it is only relevant when we compare GLS).
I agree that PS3 userbase at DMC4 release will be smaller than PS3 userbase at GOW3 release. Whether it will be twice more or not, we couldn't predict (since there is no fixed release date yet), but I am sure you know that doubling PS3 (or any console) userbase doesn't mean doubling game sales. If you compare sales for X360 S/W, you would notice that doubling X360 H/W userbase didn't result in double the game GLS.
Therefore, my point that this stock is overpriced still stand.
@Heloise10, I couldn't really comment on the bundling possibility, but I know that it is there, and I have a hunch that it is not probable. The game that I can see been bundled is Hot Shot Golf 5, or driving game, since more people enjoy it. GOW3 probably would have lots of gore, skimpy clothed women, swear word etc (like GoW1 & 2), and I don't see this kind game being bundled with PS3 H/W.
@apujanata, I'll counterargue with a number of points. DMC 3 was released at a better timeframe than DMC 4 (March vs Jan). DMC 3 garnered extra sales from being released a 2nd time a year later with a special edition with extra actual game content at a budget price. DMC 4 has already outsold DMC 3 when you take add 360 sales as well.
Applying the PS2 late lifetime release versus PS3 at height of popularity and less competition of what has been released on each platform to date logic to DMC 3 & 4 is not as accurate as for GOW series because of when DMC 4 was released. When GOW 3 releases the PS3 user base will be much larger than it was this January.
Even if GOW 3 is released late 2008 through anytime to late 2009, I would say that will be the timeframe (late 2008-late 2009) where PS3 hits its stride in popularity and hardware sales.
So again I think its hard to predict and I hold no position. I'll keep a closer eye on this stock though based on what you have posted.
@Joe80, Your explanation is reasonable. However, past sales of performance of PS3 game said that this logic might not be valid.
Compare DMC3 & DMC4. DMC4 first month sales is < 10% higher than DMC3 first month sales (all US data). The reasons you mention is applicable to DMC3 (released late in PS2's life cycle, 2005 March) and DMC4 (less to compete against what was available on PS3). I couldn't quantify the reason why GoW 3 will be released at the height of PS3 popularity and sales, since we are not sure of the exact release date (it could be late 2009, it could be late 2008, or somewhere in between).
Based on DMC3 & DMC4, I don't see any reason to expect higher than 10% improvement from GOW 2 to GOW 3. Even if I decide to be generous, and put 30% improvement over GOW 2 figure, I can still only come up with 4 Million GLS, which is much lower (25%) than current 5.4 Million prediction. If I use the 10% improvement, the GLS should be only 3.3 Million (maximum), which mean 40% profit margin from current price.
@apujanata, I agree with your points, but I also believe GoW 1 & 2 also suffered a bit due to being released so late in PS2's life cycle. Many gamers had moved on from PS2, skewing the effects of the installed base. GoW1&2 also came after so many huge titles on PS2. GoW 3 has less to compete against in terms of what is/was available on PS3 and will be releasing probably at the height of PS3 popularity and sales. So I think very well that GoW 3 could outperform the first 2 titles handily, but it is hard to predict. Thus, I hold no position in this stock.
VGC has GOW II LTD at 1.98 Million. Even if we assume that VGC undertrack this one at 50% margin error, we only have best case scenario of 3 Million GLS. This is for a game on PS2, with 100 Million + user base.
Expecting GOW III to sell 5.4 Million on a much smaller userbase (currently simEx is predicting 60 Million + PS3 userbase, max) is a little bit too optimistic, right ? If it unfortunate that I don't have enough margin to short this stock, even though I have invested 2 Million DKP into this. :(
Man, that 270k hiccup really screwed up the graph eh? Wonder if it's possible to make the graph start on 04/17 so that bit gets bumped off? Next time somebody wants to reveal a flaw in the IPO system, could you just send an email?
@apujanata, I would post it in General as that is where the community has typically been posting suggestions for the site. You may want to also email it via the Contact Us form (maybe along with the question about the combination of the Activision and Vivendi channels on the site).
-15million for the day huh? could be worse i suppose, jmouat lost 33mil in one day :P. Maybe something thinks every ps3 owner is going to buy this game 30 times? dont worry its just someone buying up all the shorts on it and has obviously purchased one share at this ridiculous price, ill put it back down for you if you want :)
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A little bit correction :
DMC 4 is released on Feb 5 (US), so it is Feb vs March, not Jan vs March as you mentioned.
In launch month, weekly rate of DMC3's first 5 weeks is roughly 15% lower than weekly rate of DMC4's first 4 weeks. This is normal since the 5th week is usually lower than average of Week 1 - Week 4, so there is no discernible difference between Feb and March.
Since I was comparing first month of DMC3 vs first month of DMC4, the fact that DMC3 has "second wind" from special edition is not relevant (it is only relevant when we compare GLS).
I agree that PS3 userbase at DMC4 release will be smaller than PS3 userbase at GOW3 release. Whether it will be twice more or not, we couldn't predict (since there is no fixed release date yet), but I am sure you know that doubling PS3 (or any console) userbase doesn't mean doubling game sales. If you compare sales for X360 S/W, you would notice that doubling X360 H/W userbase didn't result in double the game GLS.
Therefore, my point that this stock is overpriced still stand.
@Heloise10,
I couldn't really comment on the bundling possibility, but I know that it is there, and I have a hunch that it is not probable. The game that I can see been bundled is Hot Shot Golf 5, or driving game, since more people enjoy it. GOW3 probably would have lots of gore, skimpy clothed women, swear word etc (like GoW1 & 2), and I don't see this kind game being bundled with PS3 H/W.