You must do a lot of trading that is not public as I estimate the minimum DKP level must exceed 3.5 million DKP for your holdings to become public :-)
You seem to be much more active than any potential rival for position #1 too. I would bet you could retire now and still be #1 for a very, very long time :-)
With the Blizzard sales numbers cited, I would be wary of being too negative on this GLS, the sales are very impressive, more so than StarCraft in my opinion.
Oh, ok. I didn't realize those were your own projection. Good work. I think it still indicates that this stock is way too high right now though. As someone mentioned earlier, franchise sales fallow a bell curve. We can't assume that everyone who baught Diablo 2 and then some will buy Diablo 3.
Thanks for the quick reply. I think you've provided a very reasonable breakdown of the possible distribution in sales. I doubt the original sold in significant numbers after LoD's release so I have to lean more towards your last set of estimates. But I'm also not sure if Hellfire is included in Blizzard's old numbers so that could bring down your estimates on Diablo II and LoD.
18.5 million total sales ======================================================= 2.5 million Diablo (reported previously) [33%] 4 million Diablo II (reported previously) [53%] 1 million Diablo II: Lord of Destruction (reported previously) [13%] ======================================================= Assuming equal distribution 6.17 million Diablo 9.87 million Diablo II 2.47 million Diablo II: Lord of Destruction ------------------------------------------------------- Assuming only complete bundles sold 6.17 million Diablo 7.67 million Diablo II 4.67 million Diablo II: Lord of Destruction ------------------------------------------------------- Assuming only Diablo II bundles sold 2.5 million Diablo 9.5 million Diablo II 6.5 million Diablo II: Lord of Destruction
Well, most of the time I try to keep a my trading activity under wraps for a variety of reasons, so it doesn't help if you post about it. That said, I don't fault you for trying to analyze other people's portfolios. I too try to keep an eye on what others are doing and until TSE decides to change the way the system works it will be hard to hide.
However, since were all sharing I'll add to the confessional. I've been switching back and forth between long and short ever since Phase 1 of the IPO. I've never had a large position relative to my net worth, but I've made a profit on all of my trades so far so I can't complain. As of this posting I have no position in Diablo II, long or short.
On an aside, I think somebody was asking if there were more recent numbers for Diablo I and II. The most recent numbers come straight from Blizzard's June 28th Diablo III press release. "To date, the franchise has sold more than 18.5 million copies worldwide." This number surely includes all expansions as well as both main games so it's unclear as to how much each individual game has sold, but I'll let somebody else parse out the data.
While I agree that the stock is bloated, it is still too volatile to keep as a long-term investment. Use the waves to your advantage and ride it both up and down.
Once things settle down and the market finds a stable price, invest accordingly.
Yea, it's definitely not gonna rank that high. Im gonna lose money today because the price went back up, because people are stupid, but it'll go down eventually, and then I'll make mad money.
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Offtopic comment:
You must do a lot of trading that is not public as I estimate the minimum DKP level must exceed 3.5 million DKP for your holdings to become public :-)
You seem to be much more active than any potential rival for position #1 too. I would bet you could retire now and still be #1 for a very, very long time :-)
With the Blizzard sales numbers cited, I would be wary of being too negative on this GLS, the sales are very impressive, more so than StarCraft in my opinion.