I didn't put an exact science on it. I'm long because of the weight EA are putting behind this. Jill Michaels had peanuts spent on the marketing compared to what EA have talked about.
Peter Moore used to work for several sports companies selling both sporting & lifestyle goods. He'll know how to sell this product.
And this doesn't *need* the balance board either.
As for the future. It'd difficult because it's unlikely to exhibit a traditional sales curve. But even 30k is 50% profit. High risk, high reward.
@deftangel, Why 50% of Wii Fit ? Why not 10%, 30%, or 60% ?
Why not EA Active following Jill Michaels #, since they are both are like Wii Fit, and utilize Balance Board ?
"May future could go either way and sell 600k or 100k." Since the spread is so big, I think you also have difficulty predicting this game :D. Since you went long on this future, I think you are hoping for 200K - 600K for May 09. Am I right ?
My thoughts. Long term in my opinion, this game has the potential to do 50% of Wii Fit numbers. This is not the same as the "All Play" line of Sports games. EA are very specifically going after a different market, the sorts of consumers who are buying Wii Fit in spades. Interviews with Peter Moore indicated a massive marketing spend and even the creation of a sub division for this product line within EA.
In other words they are getting behind it massively.
On the flip side, they also seem to realise that this isn't about Day 1, Week 1 or even Month 1 sales so I don't think they are splashing out big for launch week and leaving it at that. They'll grow this product over time...which means the May future could go either way and sell 600k or 100k.
On one hand, if it fall into Jill Michaels and Wii Fit category, the sales should be OK/good (not bomba).
On the other hand, EA and its Wii specific All Play sports games are not doing well compared to PS2, PS3, X360 version, and it is also not doing well compared to other Wii games. If EA Sports Active fell into this category, it will "bomba".
Any thought other would share about this game ? :)
EA Sports Active (Wii) will make a GLS Stock IPO on May 7, 2009. The game was submitted by apujanata. A May Monthly Sales Future will debut the same day.
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I see, thanks for that info. In the past nearly every IPO has been included within the Blog.