I also think this is to bullish. I say about 500k for this week (which would be the best launch of a game since launch of the Wii). Next week is black Friday, right? So I would guess another 500k. After that the Christmas season begins, I would aim for another 400k. So that leaves me at 1.4 Million for the given time span.
@Kemkle33, November NPD for the game will have three weeks. Halo 3 proved that a million can be done in less than 2. Although the 360 has a bigger userbase when it came out, keep in mind that November will be a huge month for all consoles, holidays and all.
I'm a bit skeptical with 1.9M myself, but I don't think it's that far-fetched.
@rikitikitik, It is still hard to believe that with the American Wii user base at, roughly, 5 to 6 million, every three people out of ten will buy this game in a couple of weeks. I can see Black Friday in the US being a larger selling point, but it still seems a bit high at 1.9M copies sold in such a short amount of time.
@Kemkle33, Well Japan has seen a steady decline on sales for most games lately. Despite the initial enormous Wii success, Japan is now the Wii's weakest region. I believe NA and PAL will be friendlier to the plumber.
By the way, the futures are for US sales only, so sales in Japan are not as relevant ;)
@rikitikitik, With only 251k sold in Japan during its launch week, do we really think that Mario can sustain that level of sales for the other regions which only have a few weeks to reach the expected 1.9M in sales?
"While it doesn't surpass what I still consider the masterpiece of the Mario world, Super Mario Galaxy is the best Mario title since the introduction of the Tanooki suit."
"Nintendo is throwing open the doors to it's Nintendo World Store in New York City this Sunday at midnight for the star-studded launch of Super Mario Galaxy."
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I also think this is to bullish. I say about 500k for this week (which would be the best launch of a game since launch of the Wii). Next week is black Friday, right? So I would guess another 500k. After that the Christmas season begins, I would aim for another 400k. So that leaves me at 1.4 Million for the given time span.