@vGInfidel, As with anything else on the Exchange, making money is a matter of good buys and sells. How much of your AC stock is actual money? Have you sold any? What if Ubisoft says tomorrow "We messed up, we haven't sold as much as we thought", and revises their estimate down?
Hardware stocks tend to be much more volatile than individual game stocks; there are much bigger percentage moves in game stocks sometimes, but not often are there as large of dollar value moves. There's a lot of money to be made day-trading hardware stocks, if you can do it right. If not, you'll lose your shirt just as quickly as making bad monthly predictions.
yet you have exactly the same problem with long stocks in hardware, if your going to limit yourself to just monthly hardware numbers your going to find it very hard to make any sort of money at all. You have to be diverse with your investments and prepared to buy whatever you think is cheap at the time, or short whatever is overpriced.
imo the worst thing you can trade is metacritic scores as if you buy at between 85-90 even if the title is unexpectedly spectacular and makes 93-98 its only about 10% profit maximum for a long investment and it can always go against you like assassins creed for example. now i got my limit of shares in AC on 360 the day ubisoft announced its sales figures and prjections for 200dkp each, theyve reached 325 today and thats over 60% profit, which is way more than you can achieve with hardware or metacritic monthlys.
@sonycowboy, While it is a good opportunity (if indeed it sold a million on December which I don't know, I am betting more on Mass Effect above 450k than lifetime here), I still think the best opportunities are in hardware.
As far as I know you cannot redeem long stock unless selling it. If you hoard stock for a monthly number, it is automatically sold at the end of the month. For long stock, however, you need to wait for the market to raise the price. And since you are not the only one waiting to sell, it becomes hard to spare the time and DKP until it gets to a nice number.
I've been looking for some buying opportunities and this one looks good to me. We know that the 360 already has a good 2m+ right now with no question. ~1M in Nov NPD + Dec NPD + Strong European sales.
Ubisoft themselves raised the sales target to 5M just by the end of March 08, which we've got to assume give the 360 at least 3.5-3.7M units in sales.
And that's without platinum / discounted sales later which traditionally give a title a bump.
I'm surprised with the PR that this stock isn't higher.
@feelmyring, Sorry, I must have misunderstood the concept of article submissions. I thought news was news, and it was the bid system that decided it's worth. I was just looking for something new to report, and the article mentioned continued good sales past Christmas. I thought that was worth notating, if not a headline. My sincere apologies if I offend.
@Cabrill, Did anyone actually read this link? It links to a story where Assassin's Creed is mentioned in passing, along with COD4, as a game people are buying with Christmas gift cards. Even when it's mentioned, it's also right next to a paragraph about "gory game" returns.
i think that their estimate of 5M by march might be a bit ambitious but i agree that the lifetime sales will surpass this figure easily. this is exactly why i bought up to my limit on both stocks when they made this announcement and they have not yet reached the proper value for the numbers to add up.
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As with anything else on the Exchange, making money is a matter of good buys and sells. How much of your AC stock is actual money? Have you sold any? What if Ubisoft says tomorrow "We messed up, we haven't sold as much as we thought", and revises their estimate down?
Hardware stocks tend to be much more volatile than individual game stocks; there are much bigger percentage moves in game stocks sometimes, but not often are there as large of dollar value moves. There's a lot of money to be made day-trading hardware stocks, if you can do it right. If not, you'll lose your shirt just as quickly as making bad monthly predictions.