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Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360)
Guitar Hero National Contest!
Guitar Hero National Contest!
Gamepro - November 7, 2007
Submitted by thehos19 (1178) at 11:22AM PST on November 7, 2007
Awesome!
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2Animate posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 10:30AM PST on November 8, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!@Just_Ben,
Yes I agree. My numbers were to give a projection that indicates the stocks might be overvalued, not to say that those numbers definitely indicate actual sales.[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
1Just_Ben posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 11:28PM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!bids
3Gaara42 posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 5:56PM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!This stock is overvalued. This game is being released on Xbox 360, PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, Wii, PC, Mac where as Guitar Hero II was only released on the PS2 and Xbox360. Guitar Hero II sold about 1.65 million copies on the Xbox360 with only one other version on another platform (the PS2). How will Guitar Hero III on the Xbox360, which is split across six different platforms, hope to sell nearly 1 million more copies than Guitar Hero II on the Xbox360 which was split across two platforms. Also this game is being released during at time when there is much more (and better) competition from other games during the holiday season. This should be around 190-200DKP.[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 8 ]bids
1Animate posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 4:56PM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!@Just_Ben,
Which calculations are you referring to in your 2nd question?[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
1Just_Ben posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 2:50PM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!@Joe80,
Just for the record, I did never say I wouldn't agree that 800k is to much. :o) Those are all very simple calculations on data? Want my opinion on what NPD will be?
360: 550k (VGC Upped that one pretty much)
Wii: 180k
PS3: 8k
PS2: 200k
I'll give those +-20%.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 112 ]bids
2Animate posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 1:32PM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!@Just_Ben,
So you calculate ~1.4 million in 7 days. Let's add up the OCT Futures for GH 3 now.
360 532k
Wii 227k
PS3 112k
= 871k
PS2 not predicted here, but VGC has it selling more than double PS3. So let's say the PS2 ver might have sold ~190k for OCT Future period. This results in total OCT Futures at 1,061,000.
So we have math based on GH3 total sales at 1.4 million for 7 days on all platforms, we are predicting 871k for the 3 platforms listed on the SE which includes only 4 days on sale. We would likely be predicting ~1,061,000 (or higher) if we included PS2 in our OCT Futures, compared to 1.4 million for 7 days of sales. Take that as you will, I think it indicates overvaluing.[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
1Just_Ben posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 12:53PM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!@Joe80,
Sorry, just guessed the prices. x*0.8*100+x*0.2*60 = 81.2x=115M = 1.4 Million. Just figured the data from activision will also contain stand alone guitars. We did not include them (and those are not counted for our futures, right?). GH went on sales on Sunday, so it should be 7 days, right?[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 112 ]bids
1Animate posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 12:21PM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!Guitar Hero III with guitar costs $100 for 360 and the game alone costs $60 in the U.S. How come you have the avg price for the former at $80 and $50 for the latter? So it would be lower than 1.7 million, what would it be with avg price of $100 & $60 instead of $80 & $50.[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
1Animate posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 12:16PM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!@Just_Ben,
I already saw your post. (I think someone may have downbid it since then but I'm not sure, but I did not downbid it). However, as I said I still think 500k is crazy. So VGC is 7 days, my bad, I got confused.
But still, when you suggest 497k-746k it easily can look like you're talking about GH III 360's OCT Future, not the 7 day VGC period. And the pricepoint of GH III 360's Future now resembles the #'s you gave for VGC 7 day period, people may be confused.[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
2Just_Ben posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 12:07PM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!@Joe80,
well lets say 80% of copies sold are with guitar ($80 avaraged) and 20% normal ($50 avaraged). you have x*0.8*80+x*0.2*50 = 64x+1x=65x=$115m -> x=1.7 Million. Don't know where they put that number out of their pocket. (your 100 million are actually 115 million, look here).
But I would guess they are talked about shipped not sold to customers. For that you have take down the prices a little but then you would have shipped.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 112 ]bids
1Just_Ben posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 11:56AM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!bids
1Animate posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 11:41AM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!bids
1Animate posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 11:35AM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!bids
2Animate posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 11:32AM PST on November 7, 2007. RE: Guitar Hero National Contest!This seems a bit ridiculous to think it sold 800,000 copies according to VGC on 360 alone in 4 days. Even 500,000 seems crazy. Anyone good at math want to take the 360 sales from all platforms and see how many sales it would take to earn the $100 million the game got in 7 days?[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
4thehos19 posted on Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360) at 11:22AM PST on November 7, 2007. Article: Guitar Hero National Contest!
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We will see how it ends up. If the current things continue, I would say I end up with margin calls over margin calls :o) By the way, congrats on hitting the top 5 :o)