As suggested by you, after focusing on X360 in Nov 06, I found 5 new games that were covered in Nov 06, and compare their Nov 06 # to their Dec 06 #. The games : Release date (weeks covered in Nov 06 NPD) : Increase (Decrease is minus) Need Speed: Carbon : Oct 31 (4 weeks) : +41% Gears of War : Nov 7 (3 weeks) : -5% Call of Duty 3 : Nov 7 (3 weeks) : +23% WWE Smackdown vs Raw 2007 : Nov 10 (3 weeks) : +10% Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six : Vegas : Nov 20 (1 weeks) : +193%.
Note about percentage : I did not calculate it using weekly rate, but using total month # (so some game might seem to increase, even though their weekly rate actual decrease)
We can safely ignore Rainbow Six, since it is only 1 week. (+193%) Uncharted is released on Nov 16, which mean it is 3 weeks (3 times saturday and sunday), since Nov 07 covered period until Dec 1, 2007. Using 3 weeks game, we have increase that ranged from -5% (min.) to 23% (max.)
If we assume that Uncharted have 23% increase over Nov 07, using monthly # (not weekly rate #), then the maximum # for it on Dec 07 is 1.23 x 117K = 144K. Which mean, the current 14.3 DKP is right on target.
However, since a lot of retailer feedback mentioned that Uncharted is not "moving / selling" well in December, if we change the percentage from +23% to -5% (using retailer feedback and history of 2006 as guidance), then the # should be 0.95 * 117K = 111K. In other words, the current 14.3 DKP is 28% overpriced.
Personally, I believe that Dec 07 for Uncharted might be only 8 DKP, instead of 11.1 DKP. This is because it is on PS3, not X360. If it is on X360, I am willing to bet on 11.1 DKP or more.
@apujanata, I do not believe using 2005 is the best comparison because of the fact that it was launch for the 360. If you want to make a comparison to the 360 software, 2006 is a much better year because it was the same year in the system's lifespan as the PS3 is currently in. Either way, the 360 and PS3 are obviously different consoles, so any comparison for the software sales numbers must be taken with this in mind. It's nice to see that you have really put the effort into this!
@Gaara42, In 2005, of the 17 launch software on X360, in Nov 05 they sold 1.3 Million, while in Dec 05 they sold 1.1 Million. Of those 17 S/W, when comparing their Nov 05 vs Dec 05, only 7 have increased #, while 10 have decreased #. X360 is also released on Nov 22, so it only have 1 - 2 weeks of sales counted in NPD (IIRC).
I don't have complete data for 2006, so I could not do a comprehensive comparison. Once I found the data, I will post it here.
It is out the entire month, as opposed to the two weeks it got in November. Holiday sales pick up in December and people who buy a PS3 might buy this also. Word of mouth could have spread during the holiday season, prompting more people to pick the game up. CoD4 for the PS3 sold well, so it show that the PS3 still has potential to produce a game that can sell well. People might think that holiday sales for this game will grow during December instead of trailing off.
For me, it is not that this is news, but this article is a good reminder (for those who might not have paid attention in the past, or for those new members) not to have a high expectation of this game.
BTW, can anyone explain why Uncharted Dec 07 is currently at 16.06 DKP, which is much higher than Nov 07 # ?
I am surprised this Dec 14 article on NPD results made it to 15 bids. Is this really news (that Uncharted was not in the NPD Top 10 for Nov) for people here?
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As suggested by you, after focusing on X360 in Nov 06, I found 5 new games that were covered in Nov 06, and compare their Nov 06 # to their Dec 06 #.
The games : Release date (weeks covered in Nov 06 NPD) : Increase (Decrease is minus)
Need Speed: Carbon : Oct 31 (4 weeks) : +41%
Gears of War : Nov 7 (3 weeks) : -5%
Call of Duty 3 : Nov 7 (3 weeks) : +23%
WWE Smackdown vs Raw 2007 : Nov 10 (3 weeks) : +10%
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six : Vegas : Nov 20 (1 weeks) : +193%.
Note about percentage : I did not calculate it using weekly rate, but using total month # (so some game might seem to increase, even though their weekly rate actual decrease)
We can safely ignore Rainbow Six, since it is only 1 week. (+193%)
Uncharted is released on Nov 16, which mean it is 3 weeks (3 times saturday and sunday), since Nov 07 covered period until Dec 1, 2007.
Using 3 weeks game, we have increase that ranged from -5% (min.) to 23% (max.)
If we assume that Uncharted have 23% increase over Nov 07, using monthly # (not weekly rate #), then the maximum # for it on Dec 07 is 1.23 x 117K = 144K. Which mean, the current 14.3 DKP is right on target.
However, since a lot of retailer feedback mentioned that Uncharted is not "moving / selling" well in December, if we change the percentage from +23% to -5% (using retailer feedback and history of 2006 as guidance), then the # should be 0.95 * 117K = 111K.
In other words, the current 14.3 DKP is 28% overpriced.
Personally, I believe that Dec 07 for Uncharted might be only 8 DKP, instead of 11.1 DKP. This is because it is on PS3, not X360. If it is on X360, I am willing to bet on 11.1 DKP or more.