Industry News
bids
31
31
Industry News
Analyzing the Analysts
Analyzing the Analysts
Kotaku - February 18, 2008
Submitted by Animate (241) at 12:20PM PST on February 18, 2008
"After a look at ten analysts, 100 predictions, and first hand accounts from video game industry analysts Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities and Jesse Divnich of The simExchange, and founder of The simExchange Brian Shiau, we managed to gain a little bit of insight into the murky crystal ball used to prognosticate and pontificate."
Discussion - Submit a comment
bids
2@Joe80,
I can get being strict, but then wouldn't the predictions that were surpassed be wrong because they didn't get them exactly? One needs a margin of error in this kind of situation to get results that are standardized across the board.
I thought it was funny that Pachter has already contacted them to tell them they were wrong that one of his predictions were wrong.[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 294 ]bids
1@Laoldar,
I think they were right to be so strict. What would the margin of error be & how would you calculate it. However, I also noticed that PS3 price cut prediction by Jesse was correct, yet they claimed it to be false. I kept rereading thinking wth?![ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
2@Laoldar,
I agree with your statements. I left a lengthy comment on Kotaku on the article about this.
I also said that they should have taken the hardware numbers and done like if you get within 5% of the actual numbers, then its true, if not it's false. For example, the simExchange got the prediction about July PS3 sales false because we were too low by only 6,000 units while other analysts can get predictions with hardware sales being quite higher than their prediction and have it marked true.
Quite a bad article if you ask me in the way that the predictions were "graded" and the unpublished guidelines Kotaku used.[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 294 ]bids
1@Joe80,
They're pretty harsh on some of these predictions. In one case, Pachter was right (Wii outselling PS3 4-1), but got a "false" because his numbers were slightly higher than actuals.
In one prediction, Jesse called for a PS3 price cut, then got a "false" when the site even lists it as happening the next month?!?
Kotaku was pretty sloppy.
For any numbered prediction, it's just common sense that there's a margin of error.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
1Part 2 of Analyzing the Analysts is now available, including all the predictions they made & how they turned out.[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
1@apujanata,
There is a reason why I BOLD everything important in my PDF notes to the press.. hehe[ Admin ]bids
1@Jesse2050,
I had that on a forum. There people go ahead and complained that our prediction was so obvious, don't remember what it was exactly. I posted 4 times (even bolded) that SE is a prediction made by gamers through a market, and said they should join and prove themselves. It didn't help the bashing continued that analyst are all stupid folk down the road. I personal couldn't believe my eyes.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 112 ]bids
3@Jesse2050,
"No one reads anymore"
I noticed that in this internet age, if things are not bolded, underlined, colored or whatever, people will not read them. It is a new and troubling trend, IMO.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
6They should really take my name out of it and replace it with "The simExchange". After all, everything I talk about comes from the prediction market. They need to give credit more to the people and not the person who types the reports.
If you read the comments on that article, most say “gamers can do a better job than these Analysts!”, don’t they understand that is exactly what The simExchange is all about? The journalist, who did a great job with this article, even dedicated a whole paragraph explaining The simExchange, but yet readers still make those comments. Weird.
Anyone else agree with me here? No one reads anymore? They just see the title and start making comments.[ Admin ]bids
31Animate posted on Industry News at 12:20PM PST on February 18, 2008. Article: Analyzing the Analysts"After a look at ten analysts, 100 predictions, and first hand accounts from video game industry analysts Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities and Jesse Divnich of The simExchange, and founder of The simExchange Brian Shiau, we managed to gain a little bit of insight into the murky crystal ball used to prognosticate and pontificate."[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]
About Us - The simExchange is the video game stock market and the source
for video game sales forecasts.
1
Margin of error is a very simple percentage calculation. For instance, using a standard statistical error would be about 5-10%. So on predictions of 130,000 units the error would be plus/minus 6500-13,000(depending on which you choose).
Also, good point for those who mentioned that underestimating gets a "true". Very sloppy article.