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Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie
Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie
Kotaku - February 21, 2008
Submitted by lstormy10 (294) at 7:38PM PST on February 21, 2008
"Speaking to Bloomberg, NoA talisman Reggie Fils-Aime reckons that the 360's lead over the Wii in North America will disappear this year. And not just "this year", but by June."
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2lstormy10 posted on Wii (Wii) at 2:06PM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggiebids
1Laoldar posted on Wii (Wii) at 1:57PM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@lstormy10,
I think that we'll see an increase in hardware production by the fall, if not by summer. I would bet that Nintendo is keeping quiet about this so in order to stop analysts from over-estimating what the increase will be. They could increase by a few hundred thousand units per month and still be selling every unit, so it wouldn't make sense for them not to be trying to icnrease production.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
2lstormy10 posted on Wii (Wii) at 12:59PM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says ReggieI believe that the only way that this is possible is if they have either increased production by a bit or divert some supplies to North America for game releases (most likely the Super Smash Bros Brawl release coming up in a couple of weeks).
They probably will not be able to divert units for Wii Fit and Mario Kart releases (if the release dates for those don't change) because of the fact that European (Kart, Fit) and Japanese (Kart) releases for those games are most likely going to end up being close to the U.S. release dates (that is if release dates don't change).
While it is possible for the Wii to catch the 360 by June in North America, I believe it will probably end up being a little later. Also, remember that this is only for North America (saying that the Wii has already passed 360 in some other territories - especially Japan).[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 294 ]bids
1Laoldar posted on Wii (Wii) at 12:32PM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@pilias_simber,
You can't prove they're moving anything. The Wii has consistently sold out since its launch, so how could you possibly measure any effect they might be having? Name a month where the Wii wasn't flying off the shelf.
Yes, games are important. But the Wii isn't selling based on the strength of a title or two.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
1pilias_simber posted on Wii (Wii) at 11:50AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@Laoldar,
Actually you just listed 3 big releases that seem to be moving units.
We have more big titles on the way and I find it hard to believe that the Wii will continue to be completely sold out this entire year regardless of whether or not it releases games. I think games are very important to whether or not the system continues to sell well.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 122 ]bids
1Laoldar posted on Wii (Wii) at 11:27AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@pilias_simber,
Why not? There have been very few big Wii releases lately (arguably Mario Galaxy is the only big game...possibly GH3 and Mario/Sonic) and yet they are still selling out every single system. It's been months since a big title came out, so why are you still doubtful?[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
0pilias_simber posted on Wii (Wii) at 7:03AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggiebids
1Laoldar posted on Wii (Wii) at 6:48AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@pilias_simber,
I agree that SSBB, Mario Kart and Wii Fit will be huge, but let's face it...Nintendo wouldn't have to launch a simgle game this year and they could probably sell out of every shipped system.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
1pilias_simber posted on Wii (Wii) at 6:33AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@ItachiItachi,
I don't recall them saying that, got a link?
There are a couple of factors to also consider in this.
SSBB is coming out before then, Mario Kart will be out about that time, Wii Fit launches before then as well. All of these should move systems, unless we really start to see a drop off from what we saw last year this time in the US I think it's perfectly reasonable to think that the Wii will catch up to the 360 by the end of June.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 122 ]bids
1ItachiItachi posted on Wii (Wii) at 6:16AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@pilias_simber,I think nintendo said they are already using all there factories plus some of the DS factories at fullsteam. There not planing to to build any more factories so production rates probably won't increase. So unless 360 sales drop off or a bigger percentage of the wiis start coming to the US I don't think this will happen.[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 463 ]bids
3pilias_simber posted on Wii (Wii) at 6:09AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggiebids
1Just_Ben posted on Wii (Wii) at 3:47AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@apujanata,
I think Nintendo can ship that many. I personal would expect about 40% of 1.8 Million (at least). Who knows if they up production? Or already producing 2 Million/Month?
Stores selling them? Well, who knows where demand is?[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 112 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Wii (Wii) at 3:41AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@Just_Ben,
About Nintendo, they are a very conservative company. They prefer to underproduce (undership) than overproduce (overship).
Given that there is no precedent (yet) in the past for 800K / month average sales during Feb - June (for reference, PS2 only managed 2.1 Million sales in Feb-Jun period in their prime time, which translate to 420K / month average sales), it is not reasonable to expect 50% of production to be shipped to US, when Japan and Europe are still eating Wii voraciously (witness the 6 Million Wii LTD in Europe news, which is only 20% lower than US LTD).[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Wii (Wii) at 3:35AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@Just_Ben,
The X360 LTD lead against Wii is 1.75 Million, not 1.3 Million (up to Jan 2008 NPD data).
That mean there is 5 months available for Wii to catch up to X360 LTD (Feb - June). That means 1.8 / 5 = 360K / month.
If X360 did 200K / month, on average from Feb to Jun(which is a very low estimate), then Wii need to do 560K / month, on average. Do you really think Wii can do that ?
If we raise X360 to 250K / month average (assuing GTA4 give them boost), or even 300K / month average, the Wii figure will be even more absurd (610K - 660K average). I think it is more realistic to expect August - Nov timeframe for it (Wii LTD > X360 LTD).[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
3Just_Ben posted on Wii (Wii) at 2:56AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@apujanata,
So 600k/month sold (at least) should not be enough to sell 1.3 Million more than the 360 in 4 month? 1.3/4=350k. That means the 360 has to sell >250k/month in best case so its July. If Nintendo is able to ship 800k a month, it is >450k.
I say the time frame is about right (May/June/July). Depending on how much Nintendo ships and how much GTA helps the 360.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 112 ]bids
1deftangel posted on Wii (Wii) at 2:49AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@apujanata,
Agreed. Another blog's take on this comment was that they weren't sure they could attribute it to Reggie himself, if it hadn't have been Bloomberg they wouldn't have posted it.
I think it has a chance of catching up by December 08 but how much of that will be driven by Wii Fit and users using it as nothing more than a lifestyle device I couldn't be sure.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Wii (Wii) at 2:36AM PST on February 22, 2008. RE: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie@lstormy10,
Too optimistic. I can believe "by December 2008", but I could not believe "by June 2008". Unless Nintendo upped their 1.8 Million / month Wii production, or give US 50%+ of their Wii production / month (which means starving / killing Japan & Europe sales)[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
22lstormy10 posted on Wii (Wii) at 7:38PM PST on February 21, 2008. Article: Wii To Catch 360 By June, Says Reggie
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You can't prove that the games were not moving anything. We have no idea at all when supply will hit demand, but its pretty much expected to be sometime this year.