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Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360)
GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week
GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week
GamesIndustry - March 12, 2008
Submitted by sagexsdx (148) at 9:39AM PST on March 12, 2008
With the highly-anticipated title Grand Theft Auto IV due for release late next month, Wedbush Morgan has said that it expects the game to sell over nine million units during the fiscal year, and that Take-Two is likely to ship six million of those in the first week of sale.
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1deftangel posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 5:51AM PST on April 4, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@apujanata,
I started trading early Jan so I'm up to 35% already! Approx 3.5m worth. With a bit of luck I will hit 2000 netbids shortly to get some more cash to invest. I will continue to short this (the PS3 one) to high heaven as it's grossly over-valued.
The other 65% of equity I shall reserve for shorter term investments :)[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 4:17PM PST on April 3, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@deftangel,
Hmm. When did you join simEx ? Around early January / end of December ?
Shouldn't you be able to get 35% diversification rule now ? I am not sure about this, since I didn't focus all my money on just one stock (so many futures to short, and now the futures are no longer available :( ).[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
4kooistrak1 posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 8:33AM PST on April 3, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@apujanata,
Good point. The market always seems to overvalue "famous" stocks around release date (people caught up in the hype), so I wouldn't be surprised to see GTA4 get pumped up to 20M combined right around release. You can wait out then short but currently at 19M combined you are limited to upside risk, no way this should go that much higher, and if it does just ride it out. As great of game as this is it isn't going to sell 20M. COD4 was/is huge on both consoles and isn't even at 10M combined worldwide. 2M of PS3 user base is Japan and I don't expect this game to sell well over there. The attachment rate would have to be insane to reach 19M.[ Veteran ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 30 ]bids
2deftangel posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 5:36PM PST on April 2, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@apujanata,
I haven't, been short on it for months! I've just hit the diversification rule that's all.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
2apujanata posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 5:14PM PST on April 2, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@deftangel,
You should go "slow and high" when shorting famous stocks, such as GTAIV, Gear of Wars 2. You should never, ever go on a shorting spree on those GLS stock.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
2deftangel posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 3:52PM PST on April 2, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@kooistrak1,
If only, I'm short on the PS3 as far as I can go with it but the price has gone up in the last week or so meaning I've been having to shift money around to keep the margin "healthy".
Reality on these stocks will only strike after NPD releases in April and even then, when the 360:PS3 ratio I expect becomes apparent the 360 stock could rocket even from it's over-valued state now for a good couple of months.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
2kooistrak1 posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 12:38PM PST on April 2, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@Just_Ben,
Sorry I was just talking about Sim exchange, I agree with your point. None the less the numbers on the sim exchange are back to over 19M combined. Easy money on the shorts...[ Veteran ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 30 ]bids
1Just_Ben posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 11:32AM PST on March 26, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first weekbids
2kooistrak1 posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 10:35AM PST on March 26, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@Just_Ben,
The lifetime numbers for the 360 and ps3 are to high. The highest selling GTA game to date(vice city) sold 15Million, and at the time the PS2 still had a much larger installed base than the 360 and PS3 combined have now. The current roughly 12 million on 360 and 7M on ps3 is 4M higher than Vice city. Game will sell a ton but 19M would make it the all time best selling game that is not included with a console. Edit looks like someone just sold down 360 to 10M so 17M is still on the high side but more reasonalble[ Veteran ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 30 ]bids
5kspraydad posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 7:38PM PST on March 12, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@vGInfidel,
As to why Rockstar needed guaranteed funds up front perhaps this quote from Pachter would suffice:
"We think that it is important to point out that U.S. industry software sales have grown by over 58% from the November 2005 – January 2006 period through the November 2007 – January 2008 period, while Take-Two's publishing revenues have declined by almost 23%. This is clearly a company that is losing market share, and as we review the lineup for the balance of 2008 and 2009, we see more of the same type of games we have seen over the last three years," he said. "The company's sports lineup continues to underperform, generating only $32 million of sales (26% of publishing revenues) for the key holiday period. This figure calls into question whether Take-Two can deliver sports revenues of $250 million for FY:08, as management implied in a prior earnings call."[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 475 ]bids
1kspraydad posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 7:34PM PST on March 12, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@apujanata,
From what I've been able to gather it is a prepayment...Rockstar keeps the reported cash (I recall they were adding it to this year's balance sheet) and only participates in further revenue once MS earns their money back from DLC.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 475 ]bids
2sagexsdx posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 7:14PM PST on March 12, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@sagexsdx,
i missed this in the given article but apparently in the same report where he stated the 9 mil thing, he also stated that he thinks that 6 million of this 9 million will be on the 360 which leaves 3 million on the ps3.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 148 ]bids
1vGInfidel posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 5:42PM PST on March 12, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@apujanata,
i think its more likely to be a pre-payment. Rockstar has a risk free venture into largescale downloadable content whilst MS gets the exclusivity rights to boast about. win, win situation, except for sony.
Why would Rockstar need a loan to fund it anyway? they could just wait to see some return on the initial game and then start with the downloadable content if it really was in that desperate need of funds.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 150 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 5:36PM PST on March 12, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@kspraydad,
There is a difference between pre-payment (or advance payment) and loan.
IF the actual sales of DLC is, say, $40 Million, there will be different result.
For a loan, Rockstar have to return the $10 Million difference.
For a pre-payment (advance payment), Rockstar doesn't have to return any money to MSFT.
So, is it pre-payment, or is it Loan ?[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
2kspraydad posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 4:55PM PST on March 12, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@Just_Ben,
Patcher put week one SALES at 75% of shipped or 4.5 million BTW.
Another thing I've just glommed onto is that the $50 million MS supposedly paid for episodic content was basically a 'pre payment' or loan to Rockstar. Rockstar won't make a dime off the downloads until they have sold $50 million worth...all the sales $ go to MS before that.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 475 ]bids
2Just_Ben posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 4:45PM PST on March 12, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@RTSgamer,
Don't mix shipped with sales. He is talking about shipped units, and thats not impossible.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 112 ]bids
2RTSgamer posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 1:30PM PST on March 12, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@Just_Ben,
6 million is well beyond the suggested IPO prices. Of course, the NPD Futures are US only and not global. However, I still think the current suggested IPO prices are on the low side.[ Veteran ] [ Level 16 ] [ Rank: 624 ]bids
2Just_Ben posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 9:49AM PST on March 12, 2008. RE: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week@sagexsdx,
Hmmm, the 360 has a western install base of around 17 Million. The PS3 around 9 Million. That should grow until then, lets say they got 27 Million combined. 6 Million shipping first week would mean 22%. Sounds realistic, maybe a little low.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 112 ]bids
50sagexsdx posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 9:39AM PST on March 12, 2008. Article: GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first weekWith the highly-anticipated title Grand Theft Auto IV due for release late next month, Wedbush Morgan has said that it expects the game to sell over nine million units during the fiscal year, and that Take-Two is likely to ship six million of those in the first week of sale.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 148 ]
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Don't worry. You could get good profit in the future, since there is no longer any future to invest in, member are forced to invest in GLS, and this stock might be one of those who will receive "fresh shorting", so to speak.
I am also close to my 2000 netbids, just like you :).