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Industry News
Nov 08 NPD, Wii 2 Million+
Nov 08 NPD, Wii 2 Million+
Gamedaily - December 11, 2008
Submitted by apujanata (14935) at 3:51PM PST on December 11, 2008
Playstation 2 206k
Playstation 3 378k
PSP 421k
Xbox 360 836k
Wii 2.04M
DS 1.57M
For Software and nicer looking H/W list, see comment.
Discussion - Submit a comment
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1@vGInfidel,
We aren't perfect, and probably never will be, but 8/11 of our predictions this month were within 10% and I think batting .727 is quite good.
@apujanata,
Thx for the #'s[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 4 ]bids
2apujanata posted on Industry News at 4:49PM PST on December 11, 2008. RE: Nov 08 NPD, Wii 2 Million+@zukaus,
VGC was 1,600,225 (US only).
I just calculated my holdings using the official figure, and I got around 700K additional profit just from Nov cashout.
@soupsoup,
I am also surprised that GoW2 is only getting 1.56 Million on it, but it is a pleasant surprise, since I have some short (6K stocks) on it :).
VGC # for GoW 2 is 2.04 Million (US only).[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
2vGInfidel posted on Industry News at 4:46PM PST on December 11, 2008. RE: Nov 08 NPD, Wii 2 Million+@apujanata,
If Wii had been pushed up to the 1.8million region then I almost certainly would have sold my 7k long position as hoping for anything above that seemed too risky at the time.
@zukaus,
We were quite a way over with the Gears of War 2 prediction as well, I tried driving it down a bit the past couple of days and got about 15k shares short on it but the price was fairly stubborn and I didn't want to fully commit. Wii Play was a bit under and I should have followed my analysis and gone long but again i was a little too conservative.
Otherwise, PS3 was pretty much spot on, DS was spot on, COD on PS3 and 360 were fairly close, Resistance was close and PSP wasnt too distant.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 150 ]bids
2@vGInfidel,
Yeah, I certainly didn't expect to see it there. Not that I mind apujanata pointing it out - I'm short on it too.
I had a feeling Wii Music might sneak into the top ten. It should be up there next month too.
Didn't expect Gears and WaW to be so close - thought Gears would be higher. I was surprised that WaW was above Gears on the Live activity charts, but I think these numbers go some way to explaining that. (Along with Gears' online problems.)[ Guru ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 237 ]bids
1@apujanata,
I'm to lazy to go to VGC and add it up, what was their Wii prediction?[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 4 ]bids
2apujanata posted on Industry News at 4:39PM PST on December 11, 2008. RE: Nov 08 NPD, Wii 2 Million+@vGInfidel,
Well, if it (COD:WaW Wii) show up in NPD Top 10, I sure am going to go long on it's GLS :).[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
2apujanata posted on Industry News at 4:38PM PST on December 11, 2008. RE: Nov 08 NPD, Wii 2 Million+@zukaus,
SimEx might be higher than Pachter, EEDAR, NeoGAF average, BUT it is not higher than VGC :(.
My own prediction is only 1.55 Million, which is why I didn't take any action (investing just to get 5% profit is unnecessary risk taking, in my book).
In an imaginary scenario, someone had the courage (and cash) to drive up Wii Nov to 1.8 Million, and some people (not me, since I am not really comfortable shorting Wii) might go short on it, and therefore lose lots of money. :)[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1@apujanata,
Hindsight is 20/20 ;)
That said, I believe TSE predictions were very good this month. We've been getting better and better and even though our Wii prediction was off it was likely the highest out of any group out there, higher than Pachter, EEDAR, and probably higher than the NeoGAF average. So don't beat yourself up too much.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 4 ]bids
3vGInfidel posted on Industry News at 4:16PM PST on December 11, 2008. RE: Nov 08 NPD, Wii 2 Million+@apujanata,
I think that the Wii version selling under 300k was expected. We are only predicting 1150k sales worldwide so for a quarter of them to come in one month from America alone would have been a bit much to ask surely? It will be interesting to see if the number is released seperately, which i'd guess is fairly likely at some point to see just how well/badly it has done.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 150 ]bids
2apujanata posted on Industry News at 4:13PM PST on December 11, 2008. RE: Nov 08 NPD, Wii 2 Million+@apujanata,
I changed the article URL to gamedaily, since it is more "official", and it also confirmed that COD:WaW PS3 is indeed 597K.
I also noticed the lack of COD:Waw Wii version at the Top 10 list :D[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
2apujanata posted on Industry News at 4:04PM PST on December 11, 2008. RE: Nov 08 NPD, Wii 2 Million+@zukaus,
I should have followed my instinct, and go long at Nov Wii future at the 1.5 Million price point.
800K for Black friday, AND double+ YOY, should have given us clue that Wii could get 1.8 - 2.0 Million in Nov. I miss predicted Wii and Wii Play.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
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2apujanata posted on Industry News at 3:53PM PST on December 11, 2008. RE: Nov 08 NPD, Wii 2 Million+@apujanata,
Playstation 2 206k
Playstation 3 378k
PSP 421k
Xbox 360 836k
Wii 2.04M
DS 1.57M
GEARS OF WAR 2* 1.56 million
X360 CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR* 1.41 million
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 796K
WII FIT 697K
MARIO KART 637K
CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR 597K (should be PS3 version)
GUITAR HERO WORLD TOUR* 475K
LEFT 4 DEAD 410K
RESISTANCE 2* 385K
WII MUSIC 297K[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
20apujanata posted on Industry News at 3:51PM PST on December 11, 2008. Article: Nov 08 NPD, Wii 2 Million+
About Us - The simExchange is the video game stock market and the source
for video game sales forecasts.
1
CoD3 Wii was a long selling title also,around 0.5 million units in US and over 100K in UK.
Source
I would estimate worldwide sales of 800K or more for that game,CoD5 Wii should be able to sell same or better as CoD3 Wii was also not a high rated game but still managed sales.