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Pachter's April NPD Estimates
Pachter's April NPD Estimates
VG247 - May 11, 2009
Submitted by mrahaju (9) at 9:00AM PST on May 11, 2009
Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter just put out his US console sales estimate for April, putting Wii at 480,000 units, 360 at 275,000, and PS3 at 175,000 consoles.
The analyst predicted another tough comp for the month, saying he expects sales of $550 million, down 17% compared to last year's $660 million.
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1welshbloke posted on Industry News at 12:42AM PST on May 14, 2009. RE: Pachter's April NPD Estimatesbids
1DrMarioKart posted on Industry News at 11:17PM PST on May 13, 2009. RE: Pachter's April NPD Estimates@oznerol,
yea, I've got a small short on Halo Wars, but it is essentially betting on how high #10 will be at this point. The release list for April was pretty dismal, and looking back, April in previous years wasnt that hot either. I think I'm safe though, I've about 700k market value short @ 15.78 :)[ Veteran ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 448 ]bids
1@apujanata,
I would have shorted the crap out of Halo Wars, but I am predicting a Chinatown Wars-type scenario where it won't make the listing and thus the payout would only be that of the lowest ranked game.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 1 ]bids
1@welshbloke,
I expect HW to do 12.48 or worse this month. EEDAR estimate of HW is <12 (not showing up on Top 10, so no exact figure from EEDAR PR), while VGC expectation of HW is <8.4 (not showing up on Top 20, hence no exact figure).[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1@apujanata,
I think I managed around 500k in the end for Halo Wars. I am expecting it to do around 14 this month which if it does will be good news although I will not be suprised to see it come in around 13 although anything less will be dissapointing. I suspect it will not have massive legs but I am still hopefull it will plod along and also believe it to be a good candidate for bundling later in the year.
Currently I would expect Halo Wars to do 13-14 and xbox 250-275. I have not really been following the others but my gut tells me another good month for those who shorted pretty much across the board.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 60 ]bids
1@welshbloke,
I was expecting 310K for X360, but didn't cash out from my short position at current 28.24 DKP price point, because I was hoping that X360 is doing worse than my expectation (like the 250 you mentioned).
I noticed that you are long on Halo Wars April futures. I have some short on Halo Wars and RE5 this month (only 1-2 Million DKP each), because I believe that Halo Wars will not have good legs. My feeling about RE5 is not as strong, so less short investment for it.
How much profit you made from Halo Wars March futures ? I managed to get 300K DKP profit from HW March futures.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1I certainly overestimated and will definately hurt if EEDAR prove correct. I am more inclined to go with 250 but even this will be a painfull result for me this month.
I am going to let them spin and take the loses on the chin and then remind myself why I do not normally dable in the NPD monthly gamble.
I was certainly boyed up by my unepected success with Halo Wars and seem to have gotten carried away.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 60 ]bids
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1@Powertrade,
It can also be a case of analyst under-predicting the market for this month, since March 09 NPD are below expectation, and the analyst probably overcompensated the model (just like simEx overcompensated March 09 because of the unexpectedly strong Feb 09).[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1Powertrade posted on Industry News at 10:31AM PST on May 11, 2009. RE: Pachter's April NPD Estimatesbids
1@mrahaju,
EEDAR's estimates :
360 210,000
PS3 160,000
Wii 425,000
Pacter's
360 275,000
PS3 175,000
Wii 480,000[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 9 ]bids
14mrahaju posted on Industry News at 9:00AM PST on May 11, 2009. Article: Pachter's April NPD EstimatesWedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter just put out his US console sales estimate for April, putting Wii at 480,000 units, 360 at 275,000, and PS3 at 175,000 consoles. The analyst predicted another tough comp for the month, saying he expects sales of $550 million, down 17% compared to last year's $660 million.[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 9 ]
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I also have 75K short @ 15.39. I have high hopes for this stock.