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Super Mario Galaxy (Wii)
at 8:45PM PST on October 23, 2007.
I didn't necessarily mean Halo 3 was the biggest game of all time (I worded what I really meant poorly before), but that it was the biggest release of all time (so far). I think we can all agree on that?
Anyway, I do have to reaffirm that this game will probably sell 10-12 million copies, but no more than 14 million. Let's say that the Wii install base gets to about 100 million total lifetime sales--14 million would be be 14% of all Wii owners getting this game. (Remember this is all approximate) If we hold to this model, then about 1 in every 7 Wii owners would buy this game. That is pretty generous considering that
about 2/3 of all Wii owners haven't even used the system in a long time.
If we hold those statistics to be true, then we can it's not a large jump that the total maximum number of people that would buy this game is about 30 million (lifetime possible). From that we can say that the current price is on the high end of possibility. Probably the low this would sell is 10 million, based on my predictions, so the game will probably sell between 10-20 million units, most likely ending up between there somewhere (I'll say the high is probably 16 million now).
Considering all this, the stock is probably going to drop like a rock when the game comes out like what happens to so many other stocks on the simExchange. I'd expect it to drop by at least 200 points, maybe 400. My advice would be to sell and have a shorted position on this soon before the prices start dropping.
Feel free to challenge my predictions, I'm open to hearing other opinions.
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