GameCube never sold 200K in January. Xbox only did once, two months after Halo 3's release. PS3 is performing worse than those systems; why expect that to change in January?
PS3 did sell 244K last January, but that was thanks to a combination of December shortages and NPD January being five weeks instead of its regular four. This year the tracking period won't even include the days closest to December, so it's losing the heaviest part of last year's period.
Even if we say it will behave similarly to PS2, except in cases of December shortages PS2 would always drop more than 80% from December to January. That would mean a December of over 1 million to get a January of over 200K.
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PS3 did sell 244K last January, but that was thanks to a combination of December shortages and NPD January being five weeks instead of its regular four. This year the tracking period won't even include the days closest to December, so it's losing the heaviest part of last year's period.
Even if we say it will behave similarly to PS2, except in cases of December shortages PS2 would always drop more than 80% from December to January. That would mean a December of over 1 million to get a January of over 200K.