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at 5:09PM PST on January 2, 2008.
I'm not sure where you're getting your assumptions about population.
Let's assume that last gen sales were 160 million. Let's now look at the populations of the main target territories:
USA/Canada - ~333 million
European Union - ~495 million
Japan - ~127 million
So we have over 950 million people, without even considering emerging territories (Korea, Russia, South Asia, Australia, etc etc). That's a heck of a lot of people. Since these 3 main areas are also the main areas of immigration in the world, there are a lot of new residents each year that are the target gaming age.
Your assumptions about population growth are a bit wonky as well.
Japan's growth is just above zero, hardly "falling rapidly".
USA is growing at about 1% per year (or 3 million people per year).
EU is growing at about .16% per year (or about 800,000 people per year).
Even with "minimal" growth, you're looking at millions of new gamers every year in the main areas.
The credit crunch has yet to hit consumer spending. Spending in the US in November was actually up and "high prices" won't affect Wii sales as it's quite a cheap console price wise.
And of course China is primarily PC...no console maker has made a move there yet! Besides, there are many other nations such as Korea. Nintendo started selling (the DS) in Korea this year for the first time...a market of 50 million people. Nintendo is formally launching the Wii in South Korea and China in 2008.
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