Please note that it is 40% of US households, not 40% of US people. I also agree with Laoldar, that China's penetration will not be 40%. Lets say that one household contain 3-5 people (on average, since 1 family 1 children policy by China government, and possibility that the elderly are living with their son/daughter, unlike US). We are looking at 200 million household, minimum. With 5% penetration, it is a 10 million market. Say Wii got 50% of it, it only add 5 million unit. Your calculation of 400 million is too big.
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Please note that it is 40% of US households, not 40% of US people. I also agree with Laoldar, that China's penetration will not be 40%. Lets say that one household contain 3-5 people (on average, since 1 family 1 children policy by China government, and possibility that the elderly are living with their son/daughter, unlike US). We are looking at 200 million household, minimum. With 5% penetration, it is a 10 million market. Say Wii got 50% of it, it only add 5 million unit. Your calculation of 400 million is too big.