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at 4:18AM PST on February 17, 2008.
Since you are the "official" SE interpreter, I will do one thing for you I normally don't do that much anymore. I explain my point of view in detail.
First off: The christmas stockpiling myth: They just don't did it last year, at least not to that extend people believe it. Lets go by the numbers. We now they produce more than 1.8 Million/month since september (so says Nintendo). More than means, they produce 1.8 Million for sure and they can plan, if they produce more, its because they don't have less reject due to defect than expected. Nintendo is alway lowbaling its numbers. So I think 2 Million is the right number. Lets take 1.9 Million. Since they do that since August/September we don't have to take shipment times (for know) into account. So they produce 5.7 Million/quarter.
Nintendo shipped about 6.9 Million Units in that quarter. So we have 1.2 Million Units to explain, don't we? I have an explanation for that, an easy one: They flew them in. Normally it takes the Wii 20-25 days from production to shelf (According to Reggi), at least in the US. Flying them saves around 17 days. What does that mean in production? Well half of a month, or 0.95 Million. Know we have only 250 thousand missing. If we had gone by 2 Million production a month, we would end up with, nothing missing, 100k produced more.
So know, the forecast for this quarter. Nintendo is forecasting 4.2 Million Wii's shipped. We can safely assume thats the a guaranteed number, not a realistic number (It would be embarrassing to raise the forecast and then not reaching it). So it is save to assume 4.5 Million+ this quarter shipped. (Do you see thats lower than production? Thats why my "fly them in" calculation can't be that far of!). No we need to know how much will get the US (since we are talking about US). In the first 9 month of the fiscal, NA was getting 45% off the supply. So lets assume its 33% this time. That means 1.5 Million+.
In January NA got most likely around 300k. So we have 1.2 Million Wii still missing. Where will they end up, if not sold or on the shelf (because supply>demand)? A magic whole in Canada? (was that a little to sarcastic).
Again 1.2 Million Wii's will be shipped to NA (US+CA) in Feb and March. And thats a "at least", 1.4 Million seems more realistic.
So, enough explained why I am long on this one?
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