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at 6:09AM PST on October 3, 2008.
Oh well, the Wii launched in begin of december for me (European) so another two month to go in my head, but year, lets say 6 weeks ;)
In June (last known number) there where nearly 30 million shipped (according to Nintendo) and if you do a little math, they should have about 5-10 Million units stockpiled, for christmas. that comes in to the 2.4 Million/Month production they should have. The very least shipped number at end of the (calendar) year is 45 Million units. That is in 2 years and give it a month and a half ;)
And do not forget, it is still sold out in America. No price drop (in 2 years!) no colors, no bundles not ONE thing Sony and MS is doing constantly to drive sales. And do not forget that the "leading" console normally sell way longer than 2 years after the next consoles are released. Look at the PS2, still selling :)
What would give me worry is the economic downturn. At least this month. The chaos in America could really turn markets. I read reports that the car market overall is down 30% YoY in America in September. That is a lot. I think NPD will be interesting this month ;)
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